# VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

> Elaine Luria leads at 86%, runner-up 15% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/va02-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.613Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-16

## Headline

- Leader: Elaine Luria at 86%
- Runner-up: James Osyf at 15%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elaine Luria | 86¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/va-02-democratic-primary-winner-elaine-luria-polymarket-0x84a6824d41a823829b98f3f9c5155437f34182fbed5ed505c09312bc423ce79d |
| James Osyf | 15¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/va-02-democratic-primary-winner-james-osyf-polymarket-0x4ea35c8951c420b408b8a2a561959eaa09bd38cf50a9cae93a660db8bb209dd7 |
| Burk Stringfellow | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/va-02-democratic-primary-winner-burk-stringfellow-polymarket-0xba2bfb003ed5efa28cdf204209b13e89a568feb4660727f34a8a2a8e70a1c37f |
| Matt Strickler | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/va-02-democratic-primary-winner-matt-strickler-polymarket-0xc337abbce2e8618893305d5750f260c9d4c904c44d4b3e6803babe71a79b67ca |
| Patrick Mosolf | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/va-02-democratic-primary-winner-patrick-mosolf-polymarket-0xd31952a79a0d37cb53156546b0a5af887f7b2a695b3ce08a93c1b7680e6a8966 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Elaine Luria | James Osyf | Burk Stringfellow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 83 | 9 | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 84 | 11 | 4 |
| 2026-04-25 | 85 | 8 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 66 | 19 | 28 |
| 2026-05-02 | 86 | 6 | 8 |
| 2026-05-09 | 86 | 8 | 3 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · James Osyf +11pp 6→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Burk Stringfellow −10pp 14→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · James Osyf −6pp 16→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Burk Stringfellow +6pp 8→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · James Osyf −4pp 17→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 86% probability indicates that one candidate is heavily favored to win Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. This high confidence reflects either strong polling data, fundraising advantages, or endorsement consolidation favoring the leading candidate. The probability could shift downward if challengers gain ground through late campaign spending, unexpected endorsements, or changed voter sentiment closer to election day. Conversely, it could rise if the frontrunner further distances themselves in polling or secures additional institutional support. The primary election date will definitively resolve this market, eliminating current uncertainty about voter preferences.

### Key factors

- Current market pricing shows 86% for the leader versus 10% for the nearest alternative, indicating significant but not overwhelming consensus among traders
- Primary election outcomes often shift in final weeks based on ground-game effectiveness, debate performance, and last-minute endorsement moves
- The presence of multiple serious challengers at non-negligible probabilities suggests the race is not entirely settled despite the frontrunner's advantage
- Turnout levels in Democratic primaries can be unpredictable and may favor different candidate coalitions than current polling suggests
- Any major scandal, gaffe, or external political event in the final weeks before the primary could materially alter voter calculations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/va02-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=va02-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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