# Will the CDC end its recommendation for the Rotavirus vaccine

> COVID-19 leads at 16%, runner-up 10% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vaccinerec
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.816Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: COVID-19 at 16%
- Runner-up: Influenza at 10%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $509

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 | 16¢ | −1pp | $509 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-cdc-end-its-recommendation-for-the-covid-kalshi-kxvaccinerec-27-c19 |
| Influenza | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-cdc-end-its-recommendation-for-the-influe-kalshi-kxvaccinerec-27-flu |
| Hepatitis B | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-cdc-end-its-recommendation-for-the-hepati-kalshi-kxvaccinerec-27-hepb |
| Polio | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-cdc-end-its-recommendation-for-the-polio-kalshi-kxvaccinerec-27-pol |
| Rotavirus | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-cdc-end-its-recommendation-for-the-rotavi-kalshi-kxvaccinerec-27-rot |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | COVID-19 | Influenza | Hepatitis B |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 15 | 11 | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 13 | 10 | — |
| 2026-04-15 | — | — | 10 |
| 2026-04-22 | — | — | 9 |
| 2026-04-26 | 14 | — | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 13 | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 12 | — | — |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the CDC will discontinue its recommendation for rotavirus vaccination at some point in the future. Currently priced at 13%, the market assigns low odds to this outcome occurring. The rotavirus vaccine remains a cornerstone of the childhood immunization schedule in the United States, with strong clinical evidence supporting its safety and effectiveness in preventing severe gastroenteritis. Market participants likely weigh the vaccine's established track record against potential future developments: emerging epidemiological data suggesting reduced disease burden, safety signals from adverse event monitoring systems, policy shifts prioritizing resource allocation, or changes in disease prevalence patterns. The outcome depends on CDC advisory committee deliberations and formal recommendation updates, which occur periodically but without fixed schedules. Resolution requires an official CDC statement ending the rotavirus vaccine recommendation for routine childhood immunization.

### Key factors

- Current rotavirus vaccine coverage remains high (>90% among U.S. children), with no recent safety alerts or efficacy concerns in CDC surveillance systems
- CDC's routine immunization recommendations rarely get rescinded absent compelling evidence of diminished disease burden or serious adverse events
- Any recommendation change would require peer-reviewed epidemiological data demonstrating rotavirus no longer poses a significant public health threat in the U.S.
- International vaccine policy shifts or WHO guidance changes could indirectly influence CDC decision-making, though the U.S. tends to maintain independent assessment
- The timeline for any potential review is undefined; CDC periodically reassesses vaccines through ACIP but has no announced schedule for rotavirus re-evaluation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vaccinerec
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vaccinerec

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.