# Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections

> 7 leads at 40%, runner-up 23% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vahousedem
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.507Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: 7 at 40%
- Runner-up: 6 at 23%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $28K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 40¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-7-seats-in-2026-virgini-kalshi-kxvahousedem-26nov03-7 |
| 6 | 23¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-6-seats-in-2026-virgini-kalshi-kxvahousedem-26nov03-6 |
| 8 | 20¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-8-seats-in-2026-virgini-kalshi-kxvahousedem-26nov03-8 |
| 10 | 5¢ | +5pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-10-seats-in-2026-virgin-kalshi-kxvahousedem-26nov03-10 |
| Below 6 | 5¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-below-6-seats-in-2026-virginia-kalshi-kxvahousedem-26nov03-below6 |
| 9 | 4¢ | +3pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-9-seats-in-2026-virgini-kalshi-kxvahousedem-26nov03-9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 7 | 6 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | 2 | — | 2 |
| 2026-04-24 | — | 4 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 3 | 7 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 6 | 20 | 9 |
| 2026-05-01 | 13 | — | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 | 9 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 8 | 17 | 6 |
| 2026-05-08 | 8 | 16 | — |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 6 +8pp 9→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · 10 +5pp 52→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · 6 −5pp 14→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · 9 +3pp 8→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · 7 −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Democrats will win exactly 6 seats in Virginia House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 2026. The 55% probability shown reflects the highest-priced outcome in this three-way market: Democrats winning exactly 10 seats instead. The current weighting suggests significant uncertainty about Democratic performance in Virginia, with outcomes ranging from 6 to 10+ seats clustered as plausible. Key drivers of the probability include Virginia's overall political lean, which has trended Democratic in statewide races, and the specific partisan composition of Virginia House districts. The primary resolution event is the November 2026 election itself, when actual seat counts will be determined. Until then, shifts in this probability would likely reflect changes in polling, demographic patterns, or campaign activity signaling how many seats Democrats might realistically capture.

### Key factors

- Virginia's statewide electoral lean in recent cycles (2022, 2024) relative to national conditions
- The number of competitive House districts where seat gains or losses are plausible
- How campaign fundraising and candidate recruitment develops in Virginia House races through 2026
- Changes in voter turnout expectations or demographic shifts in key districts
- Polling data on generic ballot preferences for Democratic versus Republican candidates in Virginia

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vahousedem
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vahousedem
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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