# Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch — $80M

> $100M leads at 52%, runner-up 50% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.508Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $100M at 52%
- Runner-up: $80M at 50%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 52¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xe6a007972963087be2b1d18f5c78a43c45988da8ba3865392168a25d05ca683f |
| $80M | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-80m-polymarket-0x36eaa1114c4e20e98208f0662889b50bf79d0b71dbbd6a826148f9e5ffc82eb0 |
| $20M | 41¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-20m-polymarket-0x5bb8d49be640a2f2f0ca4d956d7b29cd5309209aaffe1add4356cec851e4d23d |
| $150M | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-150m-polymarket-0x206f37e584a852d2ca677de8ede1168f7b617bb86cdfc8d6b736a441a2ef41ef |
| $50M | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0x49428b5619f740df4bce69b5175e56c908c22bf6c425d2276b15c367e4eff977 |
| $200M | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x724fe3bb76a4c9dc5a1d72612bd762991d436b18253bef55152efcf7083cb48a |
| $300M | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0xc29b6fc5e06fb6c4fb4c5c2bd3ca2c2982b965d0c9f1f9db614c72697403e6e7 |
| $500M | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0xa21c68a2f70bdf903d18e62f4c7202b7a0a76a1af7f16f1f629620cc5e08c024 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $100M | $80M | $20M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 54 | — | 65 |
| 2026-05-03 | 54 | 51 | 65 |
| 2026-05-06 | 50 | 51 | 43 |
| 2026-05-07 | 50 | 51 | 43 |
| 2026-05-08 | 53 | 51 | 42 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $20M −22pp 65→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $100M −4pp 54→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · $100M +3pp 50→53¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 66% probability that Valantis will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $80 million on its first day after launch. The probability reflects trader expectations about initial market demand relative to token supply and price discovery mechanisms. The current odds suggest moderate confidence in reaching this threshold, though significant uncertainty remains about launch timing, token allocation, and competitive positioning. Key drivers include pre-launch hype and community size, comparable project valuations at launch, and actual trading volume when tokens become available. Resolution depends entirely on the FDV calculation methodology applied one day post-launch, which typically multiplies token price by total supply including unvested portions.

### Key factors

- Token supply and vesting schedule—larger unlocked supplies dilute FDV; stricter lockups concentrate early price impact
- Comparable launch valuations—recent token launches achieving $50M-$500M FDV on day one establish reference points for market expectations
- Pre-launch community size and engagement—holder count and social activity correlate with initial demand and price support
- Trading volume and exchange listings available on launch day—thinner markets or limited exchange access reduce price discovery efficiency
- Stated valuation or funding round amounts—prior institutional investment rounds create anchors that influence retail pricing expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=valantis-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.