# Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 1 contract — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/valve-add-cache-to-map-pool
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.778Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $896

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8¢ | +1pp | $896 | polymarket | /markets/will-valve-add-cache-to-the-map-pool-by-june-30-polymarket-0xef4ab08541214903ca6eca617416a5fe1867bc3d7008c571f39001b1f62ae58f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 29 |
| 2026-04-25 | 62 |
| 2026-05-02 | 7 |
| 2026-05-08 | 9 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 7% probability that Valve will reintroduce Cache to Counter-Strike 2's competitive map pool by June 30, 2026. Cache was a popular community-designed map that Valve removed from the active pool in 2017 to focus on other maps. The low probability reflects that Valve has not signaled plans to restore it, and the company typically makes map pool adjustments based on competitive viability and player feedback rather than nostalgia. The main uncertainty driver is whether upcoming competitive feedback or player engagement metrics might prompt Valve to reconsider the roster. The contract resolves on June 30, 2026, when Valve's official map pool status becomes definitive.

### Key factors

- Cache has been absent from the competitive map pool for approximately 9 years with no official Valve statements indicating plans for its return
- Recent Valve map pool decisions have favored newer maps like Anubis and Ancient over reverting to legacy maps
- Competitive CS2 teams and community engagement metrics would need to demonstrate sufficient demand to justify Cache's reintegration over current alternatives
- Valve typically announces major map pool changes during official announcements or competitive season updates, not randomly
- The 58-day resolution window (May 3 to June 30, 2026) constrains opportunities for Valve to make and implement such a decision

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/valve-add-cache-to-map-pool
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=valve-add-cache-to-map-pool

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