# Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...

> August 30 leads at 9%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/valve-add-cobblestone-to-map-pool
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.057Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-30

## Headline

- Leader: August 30 at 9%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 30 | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-valve-add-cobblestone-to-the-map-pool-by-augu-polymarket-0xf63c5f2c1bb667f45c55c541ede65ec211b3f7689499bde99d72eba72aecdabf |
| June 30 | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-valve-add-cobblestone-to-the-map-pool-by-june-polymarket-0x6186e4b19d655bb5388a99999b8f926794163456dd77d54465d8f849bd744c7d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | August 30 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 21 | 17 |
| 2026-05-06 | 9 | 6 |
| 2026-05-07 | 9 | 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | 9 | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · June 30 −11pp 17→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · August 30 −11pp 20→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract tracks whether Valve will add Cobblestone to Counter-Strike 2's competitive map pool by a specified deadline. At 26%, the market signals this outcome is unlikely but possible. Cobblestone was removed from the active pool in 2016 and has remained absent despite occasional community requests for map rotation changes. The probability reflects Valve's historical reluctance to reintroduce removed maps combined with uncertainty about their future pool management decisions. The main drivers of this estimate are: Valve's infrequent map pool updates and their typical preference for map replacements rather than additions to the existing rotation. The contract resolution depends on an official Valve announcement or patch note confirming Cobblestone's inclusion before the deadline date. Community sentiment, competitive viability data, and any announced map pool refresh would be the primary factors affecting this probability going forward.

### Key factors

- Valve has not added Cobblestone to the active pool in approximately 10 years despite maintaining it in other game modes, suggesting structural resistance to reintroduction
- Cobblestone's removal in 2016 was tied to specific competitive balance concerns that have never been officially addressed as resolved
- Recent Counter-Strike map pool updates have involved rotation and replacement rather than net additions to pool size
- Community demand for Cobblestone's return exists but remains a minority position compared to requests for other legacy maps
- The contract's deadline date determines whether this captures a specific window (e.g., by end of 2026) or represents a more indefinite timeframe affecting perceived likelihood

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/valve-add-cobblestone-to-map-pool
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=valve-add-cobblestone-to-map-pool

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.