# Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

> Kareem Allam leads at 41%, runner-up 35% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.545Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-17

## Headline

- Leader: Kareem Allam at 41%
- Runner-up: Ken Sim at 35%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $481

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Allam | 41¢ | +4pp | $302 | polymarket | /markets/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner-kareem-allam-polymarket-0x574baadddd5ff73355480351a6b067f762d4ad18ffdd619aa99253820b691845 |
| Ken Sim | 35¢ | +2pp | $152 | polymarket | /markets/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner-ken-sim-polymarket-0x010f3f24ab463669b4d3dee775864db64b2441f8fa7a34725765ff0d7c667ec8 |
| Pete Fry | 13¢ | +1pp | $27 | polymarket | /markets/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner-pete-fry-polymarket-0x1d4d4b7b17f1649e5a902a91992476263b1be640df547540cf2954bd00df4df8 |
| William Azaroff | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner-william-azaroff-polymarket-0xe3a2415eb9cd17f05d6b26a4a4ee6e2b17c6dbf60b99c0ad2ca79a6a1e9c4a03 |
| Colleen Hardwick | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner-colleen-hardwick-polymarket-0x668ccbcc382ed1e8771012e84ab96cd313a7fc9d1896839257bfee5478dacc22 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kareem Allam | Ken Sim | Pete Fry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 15 |
| 2026-04-27 | 38 | 31 | 13 |
| 2026-04-30 | 38 | 39 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 37 | 12 |
| 2026-05-06 | 37 | 35 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 41 | — | 14 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Pete Fry −13pp 25→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Kareem Allam +4pp 37→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Ken Sim −4pp 37→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Colleen Hardwick +3pp 1→4¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The current 39% probability reflects market expectations for one of four possible Vancouver mayoral candidates winning the 2026 election. With the leading candidate at 39% and the runner-up at 37%, the race remains competitive with meaningful uncertainty across the field. Market pricing is primarily influenced by candidate name recognition, recent polling data, fundraising capacity, and historical voting patterns in Vancouver municipal elections. The most consequential catalyst would be the official election date announcement or proximity to voting day, which typically generates shifts in candidate viability assessments as voter preferences solidify. Changes in candidate endorsements, campaign momentum, or local issues gaining prominence could also move probabilities materially. Resolution will ultimately occur on election day when actual voting results eliminate uncertainty across all outcomes.

### Key factors

- Market aggregates four distinct mayoral candidates with top two separated by only 2 percentage points, indicating genuine competitive uncertainty rather than a dominant frontrunner
- Polymarket depth on Vancouver contract remains limited relative to major election markets, suggesting probabilities may shift substantially with modest additional trading volume
- Municipal election outcomes frequently diverge from early-stage polling, making mid-campaign catalysts (endorsements, scandals, platform shifts) potential probability movers
- Voter turnout rates in municipal elections tend to be lower and more unpredictable than provincial or federal races, increasing outcome sensitivity to mobilization efforts
- Election date proximity functions as a natural resolution mechanism—probabilities typically converge toward actual results in final weeks as information asymmetry decreases

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vancouver-mayoral-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vancouver-mayoral-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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