# Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 4 contracts — refreshed 16 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vancouvermayor
Updated: 2026-07-28T19:20:50.574Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-17

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $58

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Fry | 19¢ | −1pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-fry-win-the-2026-vancouver-mayoral-elect-kalshi-kxvancouvermayor-26oct17-pfry |
| Kareem Allam | 5¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kareem-allam-win-the-2026-vancouver-mayoral-e-kalshi-kxvancouvermayor-26oct17-kall |
| Ken Sim | 20¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ken-sim-win-the-2026-vancouver-mayoral-electi-kalshi-kxvancouvermayor-26oct17-ksim |
| William Azaroff | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-william-azaroff-win-the-2026-vancouver-mayora-kalshi-kxvancouvermayor-26oct17-waza |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | 27 |
| 2026-07-14 | 49 |
| 2026-07-20 | 31 |
| 2026-07-28 | 18 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-23 · Kareem Allam −11pp 25→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Pete Fry −6pp 31→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-28 · Kareem Allam −5pp 9→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Pete Fry −3pp 25→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Pete Fry −3pp 22→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 21% probability indicates a one-in-five chance that Kareem Allam wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election scheduled for October. The relatively modest odds suggest Allam faces strong competition, likely including established candidates or those with higher name recognition in the city. The probability could shift based on several factors: campaign momentum and media coverage, changes in public opinion polling, endorsements from influential Vancouver figures, or major local issues that emerge before voting day. The election itself on October 24, 2026, will provide the definitive resolution. Until then, movements in this probability will likely track publicly available polling data, campaign developments, and any significant municipal issues affecting voter sentiment.

### Key factors

- Current public opinion polling showing Allam's support levels and name recognition relative to other candidates
- Endorsement patterns from established Vancouver politicians, business leaders, or community organizations
- Campaign spending and media visibility compared to competing mayoral candidates
- Shift in local policy priorities or crises that could significantly impact voter preferences before October 24, 2026
- Turnout projections and demographic changes in Vancouver's voting population

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vancouvermayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vancouvermayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.