# Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre

> Vanraure Hachinohe FC leads at 47%, runner-up 37% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:21.541Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Vanraure Hachinohe FC at 47%
- Runner-up: Shōnan Bellmāre at 37%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $45

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanraure Hachinohe FC | 47¢ | — | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-vanraure-ha-polymarket-0x22f232a4ff3fb6dc48b2734ca28c7e76cdbd6dc15713bab1bbec0a9ab1d0f330 |
| Shōnan Bellmāre | 37¢ | +1pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-shnan-bellm-polymarket-0x475f3823541d9663de506d205c4cd6cd72c118ac45149c490edcb970520daf0f |
| Draw (Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre) | 34¢ | ±0 | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-draw-vanrau-polymarket-0x8e89cd086f69018bd4e53fbc93ef17768bb1a6bf2683a990d3f0b0c2dd865f78 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Vanraure Hachinohe FC | Shōnan Bellmāre | Draw (Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 39 | 35 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | 40 | 35 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Markets currently assign a 47% probability to Vanraure Hachinohe FC winning this matchup, compared to a 40% probability for Shōnan Bellmāre, with a 14% residual for draw outcomes. This reflects a modest edge for the home side or historically stronger performer in this fixture. The probability is being shaped by recent team form, head-to-head records, and current league standings in Japan's professional football system. A key driver moving this probability would be injury announcements, tactical shifts, or performance trends in the week leading up to the match. The primary catalyst for resolving all uncertainty will be the final whistle of the scheduled fixture itself; until then, late team news and betting shifts in other markets may compress or widen the current spread.

### Key factors

- Vanraure Hachinohe FC holds a 7-percentage-point edge over Shōnan Bellmāre in the primary winner market, indicating marginal favorite status rather than strong consensus
- The 24-hour volume across all three contracts is zero, suggesting minimal recent trading activity and prices may not reflect intraday information flow
- The O/U 2.5 total goals contract is priced at 48¢, implying expectations of a relatively low-scoring match in line with typical Japanese league play
- Shōnan Bellmāre's implied probability (40% in winner market vs. 33% in -1.5 spread market) shows some divergence, reflecting model uncertainty around margin of victory
- No publicly available injury reports, recent fixtures, or league standings are provided in the data—all probability weights derive from historical or algorithmic factors encoded in prior Polymarket trading

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.