# Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Thespa Gunma

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-thespa-gunma
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:40.655Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-03

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanraure Hachinohe FC | 47¢ | — | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-vanraure-ha-polymarket-0x22f232a4ff3fb6dc48b2734ca28c7e76cdbd6dc15713bab1bbec0a9ab1d0f330 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xda0ea1b669fd6281e67c2f7debf289881de763bfb3598afef4fb3494f629f5e3 |
| O/U 3.5 | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0xf8c9058bc3f1c77e39ed03a30a3df9c41a377d75a71ad86ff20ff5167bf086be |
| Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-draw-montedio-ya-polymarket-0x278ee235cb895726835eeec20b13e099114a34ea505952c76b11540b3ce8b2ff |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0xb005caf340abe097cfaf651d28daf1a3f140ba7bfc4606e1ad4c47e4b14c3bbc |
| Thespa Gunma (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xa980d10a592f891e94f3c9e054856ca18d8b4366d3ef3083af9f2cf89e0029b1 |
| Thespa Gunma (-2.5) | 35¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xf0472b72ea8a9953d1d21b5fe997a73300e0f2f19e02ae3d86bc2222f77099af |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x68f5fbb3a2afbfa74b1d32d31d8d64b137044de765a06e409ffdb537d23fba0a |
| Shōnan Bellmāre (-2.5) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0xdc17d51b6bb0a05d2ff0878b2aa77f0d8358cea50f0fb3934c62c9b7a7b71ad4 |
| Shōnan Bellmāre (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0x3cdb5c2e1112eeba26007873b48409ef4a240d91d9c6ccbb6b1c2985164cd493 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0xb96a58929bb297d15a3be98281e74ba81b9969f096f6b99a45aa3fbfc26bdc54 |
| Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xc6b29b6ccedb7686c8fccf7d6a8d85ec1e79beae7acd56da8e816a761267917b |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0x9e444ed12f7b483fdb4803329e21712f877823bf81f9c38c1ab193298a3ef814 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xf9c84381843b80450cbda142e07bc4b95e02a0a142b2a6e5c5bf3803d9f48a5a |
| Thespa Gunma | 36¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-thespa-gunma-polymarket-0x1003b54bfec9e8a605fa41c7bd7e8b086cc4e5c96db6d4250a16cdbf0b51e57f |
| Vanraure Hachinohe FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0xe04de2029752409a655f70c4b900dd9fd4f3a375552899c2bf3afa52f272f5d3 |
| Montedio Yamagata | 49¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-montedio-yamagat-polymarket-0x16f4ac10b455aeed267b92b4a5a582c3801266d163f2efd32fe4cdb25f8432bb |
| Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xa5b295be7e5127fbd46480c52cab4823e0862b64aa3a6b6e40f1858913e0370e |
| Vanraure Hachinohe FC (-2.5) | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0x542c3114a9d24601e7e4a34d66c2add0778fb7abf0db1f04150c70c09a2b3743 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0xd6d00ce85db87360ad28c70342a8f2b87d703ebe7a319dca09821a11ab48a2e5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Thespa Gunma (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Shōnan Bellmāre (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Shōnan Bellmāre (-2.5) +3pp 35→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Thespa Gunma +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-thespa-gunma
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-thespa-gunma

## License

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