# Will Douglas Crockett be the Democratic nominee for VA-09

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 64% across 7 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vaprimary
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.678Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 64% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beth Macy | 96¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-beth-macy-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-va-06-kalshi-kxvaprimary-06d26-bmac |
| Bobby Scott | 93¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-bobby-scott-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-va-kalshi-kxvaprimary-03d26-bsco |
| Eugene Vindman | 94¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-eugene-vindman-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxvaprimary-07d26-evin |
| Brandi Hall | 3¢ | −8pp | $150 | kalshi | /markets/will-brandi-hall-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-va-kalshi-kxvaprimary-09d26-bhal |
| Doug Ollivant | 52¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doug-ollivant-be-the-republican-nominee-for-v-kalshi-kxvaprimary-07r26-doll |
| Philip Harding | 24¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-philip-harding-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxvaprimary-07r26-phar |
| Shannon Taylor | 87¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shannon-taylor-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxvaprimary-01d26-stay |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 43 |
| 2026-05-21 | 70 |
| 2026-05-27 | 24 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · Philip Harding +30pp 3→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Doug Ollivant +20pp 10→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Beth Macy +14pp 76→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Doug Ollivant +13pp 30→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Philip Harding −13pp 37→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Douglas Crockett has a 22% probability of winning the Democratic nomination for Virginia's 9th congressional district. This reflects a competitive primary race where multiple candidates are vying for the nomination. The current probability suggests Crockett is a secondary contender rather than the frontrunner, with the nomination outcome heavily dependent on candidate fundraising, grassroots support, and voter preference shifts as the primary election approaches. The Democratic nomination contest in VA-09 will be resolved when the primary election occurs, at which point the party's delegate selection process will determine the nominee. Factors such as campaign organization, name recognition in the district, and endorsements from local Democratic leaders will influence final vote totals. The low trading volume on Crockett-specific contracts indicates limited market confidence or analyst attention to this particular outcome relative to the broader race dynamics.

### Key factors

- Douglas Crockett's 22% probability places him behind multiple other Democratic candidates in the VA-09 primary market
- Combined Democratic nominee probabilities exceed 100%, indicating competitive fragmentation in the primary field
- Trading volume on the Crockett contract remains minimal ($10 in 24h volume), suggesting low conviction or liquidity among prediction market participants
- Adam Murphy, listed as another Democratic nominee candidate, carries identical odds (15%) to Crockett, indicating high uncertainty among candidates
- The Republican side shows Morgan Griffith with 95% probability, suggesting Democrats face a heavily Republican district that may affect nominee selection dynamics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vaprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vaprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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