# VCT 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 47% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vct
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.896Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $135

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas League Stage 1 Winner: FURIA | 44¢ | −1pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-americas-league-stage-1-winner-furia-polymarket-0x8ccb8edce7356b2734241298eda72e7e3a33a1b4c7792f0988223ab5b65394cd |
| Americas League Stage 1 Winner: G2 Esports | 46¢ | ±0 | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-americas-league-stage-1-winner-g2-esports-polymarket-0xcaacc662db927db594e3a918953161e92b4eda844c4b8752fa66163fa44af4f4 |
| Americas League Stage 1 Winner: KRÜ Esports | 43¢ | −2pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-americas-league-stage-1-winner-kr-esports-polymarket-0xe8f546e2766f7a0efdc2f7ca4d329daed2beee043755485c247dce940ef44b9c |
| Americas League Stage 1 Winner: Cloud9 | 48¢ | — | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-americas-league-stage-1-winner-cloud9-polymarket-0x21d072b2ac41ab2884fdcda0dac59e120ba607a4c49dc8c73781ec7fa94c4c48 |
| Americas League Stage 1 Winner: LOUD | 46¢ | −1pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-americas-league-stage-1-winner-loud-polymarket-0xf6fb8d3bf5ee2aff1f978bc4d41d5aeeeea40134a90d4f7c74c8e1a63562e166 |
| Americas League Stage 1 Winner: NRG | 47¢ | −1pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-americas-league-stage-1-winner-nrg-polymarket-0xa9a47603064fe859e60d5e82622832ad464aea5aef955b1dda8f97e747b493dd |
| Americas League Stage 1 Winner: 100 Thieves | 47¢ | −1pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-americas-league-stage-1-winner-100-thieve-polymarket-0x30bc32f0c84fe36282ca87f68bce3d689c28ae6bf3eb44d46ddc17a3cc3cf031 |
| Americas League Stage 1 Winner: Leviatán | 45¢ | ±0 | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-americas-league-stage-1-winner-leviatn-polymarket-0xfd8bfacccc75c304644bbcf3399eb83f02e4e07f9b007aa4c238fce95f4ed5a9 |
| Americas League Stage 1 Winner: MIBR | 43¢ | −1pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-americas-league-stage-1-winner-mibr-polymarket-0x3442f5ddfd809c53fd86f060e1e540f00c6ad0ed2c72ac4330774ad2006fd5fc |
| Americas League Stage 1 Winner: Sentinels | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-americas-league-stage-1-winner-sentinels-polymarket-0x767c704cc62e66d24c68510df46b2f5d5e87e941673d6448a84a04030c7f8039 |
| China League Stage 1 Winner: EDward Gaming | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-china-league-stage-1-winner-edward-gaming-polymarket-0x4c26c5db38e9a7064cc6eceee3eb8d695b809e458a3b425217f2e76e07914b0e |
| China League Stage 1 Winner: Dragon Ranger Gaming | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-china-league-stage-1-winner-dragon-ranger-polymarket-0xe43c2bce54199bc225e991cf0731f66f4fac372552301a8f38a7cd6dc9640b70 |
| China League Stage 1 Winner: XLG Esports | 47¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-china-league-stage-1-winner-xlg-esports-polymarket-0xe92e908237ad1c8736091d7f6f47041a78fd1e14f448be16ce6b272c843a0bcd |
| Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: DetonatioN FocusMe | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-pacific-league-stage-1-winner-detonation-polymarket-0xb02e1948304a2894c0e9847022af57be92f795065736ffaa95efeaaa198ae84e |
| Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: Global Esports | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-pacific-league-stage-1-winner-global-espo-polymarket-0x9e8684d8f9b517c7c85c93b3288984cbd5daa39c1ba2a32a706f7e5251139566 |
| Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: T1 | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-pacific-league-stage-1-winner-t1-polymarket-0x87eaa3f6dc22fd23b8a6ef2a03cf9c8c97f3f51ebecbefc46d8c23346481ab37 |
| Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: DRX | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-pacific-league-stage-1-winner-drx-polymarket-0x2fdb5cc0f2daaaadf11f3586f30239cfc820d1fcf53203f797da3f3823064756 |
| Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: FULL SENSE | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-pacific-league-stage-1-winner-full-sense-polymarket-0x393e0246f41c3b48f3ed80a99604819529318f6af6ff32fd3f77468db3f6a451 |
| Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: Paper Rex | 52¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-pacific-league-stage-1-winner-paper-rex-polymarket-0x97c3c16c02a47c45c26a5ad5c792df71e1146fbabe2fe02808287ac53cd63da0 |
| Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: Nongshim RedForce | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vct-2026-pacific-league-stage-1-winner-nongshim-re-polymarket-0xfd55ed80c6641e4fe20f1643d5a55fe6a7fe5786db208fb47e959e86009cced9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 48 |
| 2026-05-09 | 46 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: Paper Rex +13pp 48→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: Paper Rex −10pp 61→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: DetonatioN FocusMe −5pp 48→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: DetonatioN FocusMe +5pp 43→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Pacific League Stage 1 Winner: DRX −5pp 48→43¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 44% probability reflects market expectations for a specific outcome in the 2026 Valorant Champions Tour, likely aggregating multiple Stage 1 regional competition winners across Pacific, Americas, EMEA, and China leagues. The probability sits in a moderate range, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about which teams will secure early-season victories. Stage 1 matches have not yet concluded across all regions, making these contracts sensitive to team performance, roster changes, and recent tournament results. The probability would shift upward if favored teams demonstrate strong form in early matches, or downward if unexpected competitive upsets occur. The key uncertainty resolver will be the completion of Stage 1 tournaments across all four regions, which will definitively determine the outcome and settle these contracts. Market volume remains concentrated in the Pacific contract, indicating that region commands the most trading interest and conviction among participants.

### Key factors

- Stage 1 regional tournaments across all four VCT leagues have not concluded, leaving multiple paths to contract resolution unclear
- Trading volume is heavily skewed toward Pacific ($167 24h) versus other regions ($0 24h), suggesting market confidence or liquidity concentrates on one specific outcome
- Individual Stage 1 winner contracts show mixed pricing (22¢ to 43¢), indicating disagreement about which teams are most likely to advance
- No single team shows overwhelming market consensus above 50%, suggesting the tournament field remains genuinely competitive
- Contract resolution depends on concurrent outcomes across four independent regional tournaments, creating compounding uncertainty

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vct
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vct

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.