# Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC

> Vegalta Sendai leads at 46%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:44.359Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Vegalta Sendai at 46%
- Runner-up: Tochigi SC at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegalta Sendai | 46¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-vegalta-sendai-polymarket-0xf25320c74524e76c204a60875adb65c4c3031bf2a36038361f504f0421b03cc3 |
| Tochigi SC | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-tochigi-sc-polymarket-0x9f9cbf8a35317ef6174114bf58520cb5ff430b07687d7f926ea747d2fab6f2fd |
| Draw (Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC) | 35¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-draw-vegalta-sendai-v-polymarket-0x9a86e4a76163f3d0b7f4f6ebe7f3737d5218fdb0badabea50db9fd1701bed7f5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Vegalta Sendai | Tochigi SC | Draw (Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 47 | 37 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 46 | 37 | 36 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 47% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Vegalta Sendai will win an upcoming match against Tochigi SC, slightly favoring Sendai over a draw (37% implied) and Tochigi's victory. The probability is driven primarily by relative team form, recent head-to-head results, and home-field advantage considerations in Japan's football league system. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled fixture date, which serves as the resolution point for all uncertainty. Market pricing is relatively thin based on zero 24-hour volume across related contracts, suggesting limited trader participation and potentially wider bid-ask spreads than more liquid events.

### Key factors

- Vegalta Sendai's current league position and recent match results compared to Tochigi SC's performance trajectory
- Home or away designation and historical performance patterns at the specific venue
- Direct head-to-head record between these two teams over the past 2-3 seasons
- Team roster availability, including injuries or suspensions to key players for either side
- Recent implied volatility and contract pricing movement suggesting trader confidence levels in the outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.