# Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd

> At least 800K bpd leads at 94%, runner-up 93% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezcrude
Updated: 2026-09-07T11:20:56.665Z
Category: markets · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-13

## Headline

- Leader: At least 800K bpd at 94%
- Runner-up: At least 900K bpd at 93%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 800K bpd | 94¢ | +36pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-venezuelas-average-daily-crude-oil-production-kalshi-kxvenezcrude-26oct13-t800000 |
| At least 900K bpd | 93¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-venezuelas-average-daily-crude-oil-production-kalshi-kxvenezcrude-26oct13-t900000 |
| At least 1.0M bpd | 85¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-venezuelas-average-daily-crude-oil-production-kalshi-kxvenezcrude-26oct13-t1000000 |
| At least 1.1M bpd | 34¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-venezuelas-average-daily-crude-oil-production-kalshi-kxvenezcrude-26oct13-t1100000 |
| At least 1.2M bpd | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-venezuelas-average-daily-crude-oil-production-kalshi-kxvenezcrude-26oct13-t1200000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 800K bpd | At least 900K bpd | At least 1.0M bpd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 58 | 67 | 46 |
| 2026-09-05 | — | 94 | 88 |
| 2026-09-06 | 94 | 93 | 87 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-05 · At least 1.0M bpd +42pp 46→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-06 · At least 800K bpd +36pp 58→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-05 · At least 900K bpd +27pp 67→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-05 · At least 1.1M bpd +4pp 38→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-06 · At least 1.1M bpd −4pp 42→38¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract settles based on Venezuela's official average crude oil production throughout September 2026. At 45%, markets are pricing near-even odds that output reaches or exceeds 900,000 barrels per day for the month. Venezuela's production has fluctuated significantly in recent years due to infrastructure constraints, maintenance cycles, and international sanctions effects. The outcome depends on whether current operational capacity can sustain this threshold, which sits between recent historical lows and periods of higher output. Resolution will occur when September data is reported, typically in early October through official Venezuelan or international energy agency figures.

### Key factors

- Current Venezuelan crude output run-rate relative to 900K bpd baseline—whether recent weeks show production trending above, below, or approaching this level
- Status of major oil facilities and refineries, particularly any unplanned downtime or maintenance that could disrupt daily output during September
- International crude-for-fuel swap arrangements or sanctions relief developments that directly affect Venezuela's production capacity or export capability
- Historical volatility in reported Venezuelan production figures and the reliability of data sources used for contract settlement
- The contract's relationship to lower thresholds (800K bpd at 46¢) and higher tiers (1.0M bpd at 36¢), indicating market uncertainty is concentrated in the 800K–1.0M range

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezcrude
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=venezcrude
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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