# Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 47% across 2 contracts — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezdefacto
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:13.083Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-02

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 90¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-delcy-rodrguez-de-facto-hold-head-of-state-of-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-drod |
| María Corina Machado | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mara-corina-machado-de-facto-hold-head-of-sta-kalshi-kxvenezdefacto-27jan01-mmac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 42 |
| 2026-05-25 | 91 |
| 2026-05-31 | 90 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezdefacto
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=venezdefacto

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.