# Will Venezuela become 51st state

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 1 contract — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezuela-become-51st-state
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:08.548Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $86

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | 4¢ | −1pp | $86 | polymarket | /markets/will-venezuela-become-51st-state-polymarket-0x8ded2408388980c032a4e9e3429730747c25a6499e50579abc67a3af5395e174 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 12 |
| 2026-05-13 | 5 |
| 2026-05-21 | 4 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment of the likelihood that Venezuela could be admitted as a U.S. state by some future date. The 4% level suggests traders view this as a low-probability outcome. The probability is shaped primarily by geopolitical dynamics, including U.S.-Venezuela relations and regional political shifts, alongside any potential constitutional or legislative changes required in both countries. Key uncertainties that could shift this estimate include major shifts in Venezuelan governance, significant changes in U.S. foreign policy toward Venezuela, or major economic developments that alter the political calculus. Currently, no imminent resolution date or specific legislative timeline exists, meaning this reflects longer-term speculation about possible future scenarios.

### Key factors

- Current U.S.-Venezuela diplomatic relations and sanctions regime, which would need substantial normalization as a prerequisite
- Constitutional requirements in both countries, including two-thirds Senate approval needed in the U.S. and likely Venezuelan national approval
- Venezuela's current political and economic trajectory, including governance stability and international recognition
- Historical precedent and political willingness in Congress to pursue territorial expansion or new state admission
- Demographic and geopolitical factors that could incentivize or discourage such an outcome at the bilateral or hemispheric level

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezuela-become-51st-state
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=venezuela-become-51st-state

## License

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