# Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026

> Delcy Rodríguez leads at 91%, runner-up 4% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezuela-de-facto-leader
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.058Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Delcy Rodríguez at 91%
- Runner-up: No Head of State at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 91¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026-delcy-rodrgu-polymarket-0x354c604439d7aa5d000d17a7afe94c3bc0bc1840b2ba92068b6978ee1f782478 |
| No Head of State | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026-no-head-of-s-polymarket-0x2122019d3d96845349e08dda193aae2ff0d4ebac8b7a527d6cbc0ed2114f9d60 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Delcy Rodríguez | No Head of State |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 89 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 89 | 5 |
| 2026-06-03 | — | 5 |
| 2026-06-05 | 90 | 4 |
| 2026-06-06 | 92 | 4 |
| 2026-06-07 | 91 | 4 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents market participants' assessment that Delcy Rodríguez will remain Venezuela's de facto leader through the end of 2026. The 90% level reflects relatively high confidence in continuity of the current political arrangement, though the near-zero trading volume on the leading contract suggests thin liquidity and limited recent repricing. The main factors supporting this level are the apparent consolidation of state control and absence of near-term institutional challenges, while scenarios involving leadership change—either through political succession, international intervention, or internal power shifts—remain priced at roughly 10% combined. Key catalysts that would shift this probability include major changes in military loyalty, international sanctions escalation, or documented health crises affecting the current power structure. The low trading activity indicates markets may be underpricing tail risks or reflecting genuine consensus about short-term stability.

### Key factors

- Delcy Rodríguez currently holds the role of vice president and de facto co-administrator; any formal resignation, succession, or incapacity would directly trigger contract resolution before year-end
- Military and security force loyalty remains the institutional foundation of current control; a demonstrable defection or public split would significantly lower this probability
- International diplomatic recognition and sanctions policy could shift the definition or practical reality of de facto leadership by December 2026
- The contract shows near-zero volume on the leading outcome since inception, suggesting either strong consensus pricing or illiquidity masking market uncertainty
- No scheduled elections, referenda, or formal power-transition dates appear anchored in Venezuelan governance before December 31, 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezuela-de-facto-leader
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=venezuela-de-facto-leader

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.