# Venezuela leader end of 2026

> Nicolás Maduro leads at 59%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezuela-leader
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.025Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Nicolás Maduro at 59%
- Runner-up: Delcy Rodríguez at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 59¢ | −5pp | $19K | polymarket | /markets/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026-nicols-maduro-polymarket-0x67f3f8d0a0ecdfc008c99650284a4674388a8c3029b0eb7ca0abd65dde8d996f |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 28¢ | ±0 | $7K | polymarket | /markets/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026-delcy-rodrguez-polymarket-0xa01d48a973e40770719dab42faf1aeae5da4376d9eca46e77265c7551d1be0f7 |
| María Corina Machado | 8¢ | ±0 | $722 | polymarket | /markets/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026-mara-corina-machado-polymarket-0x70187b4770796788b9d1f3fc6652c596870a9a837b96c832441652588f26029d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Nicolás Maduro | Delcy Rodríguez | María Corina Machado |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 16 | 65 | — |
| 2026-04-13 | 19 | 62 | 14 |
| 2026-04-25 | 57 | 28 | 10 |
| 2026-05-01 | 65 | 19 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 23 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 65 | 23 | 8 |
| 2026-05-08 | 60 | 26 | 8 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · María Corina Machado −14pp 22→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Nicolás Maduro −5pp 65→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Delcy Rodríguez +4pp 19→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Nicolás Maduro will remain Venezuela's leader through December 2026. At 65%, traders view Maduro's continuation as more likely than not, but with meaningful uncertainty—a 23% probability assigned to an alternative outcome suggests significant doubt among some participants. The current level reflects Maduro's consolidated control of state institutions and military support, balanced against ongoing economic crisis, international pressure, and periodic opposition challenges. Key drivers include whether opposition movements gain momentum in coming months and how external actors (particularly the U.S. and regional powers) adjust their stance. Resolution depends on Venezuela's political calendar, military loyalty dynamics, and whether any major institutional rupture occurs before year-end. The gap between the leader and runner-up suggests the market views Maduro's position as durable but not certain.

### Key factors

- Maduro controls the military, electoral machinery, and state security apparatus, which has historically proven resilient against internal challenges
- Venezuela's economic conditions—inflation, shortages, and external sanctions—create sustained pressure but have not yet destabilized regime control in 2024-2025
- Opposition fragmentation and international recognition disagreements limit the practical capacity to force a leadership transition
- Military defection or schism represents the primary mechanism that could remove Maduro before December 2026, but no credible signs of such rupture are currently evident
- U.S. and allied policy shifts could influence outcomes if they escalate intervention or shift diplomatic recognition

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezuela-leader
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=venezuela-leader

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.