# Will Edmundo González Urrutia be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 6 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezuelaleader
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:42.748Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| María Corina Machado | 15¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-mara-corina-machado-be-the-head-of-state-of-v-kalshi-kxvenezuelaleader-26dec31-mcm |
| Nicolás Maduro | 63¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-nicols-maduro-be-the-head-of-state-of-venezue-kalshi-kxvenezuelaleader-26dec31-nmad |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 27¢ | +1pp | $545 | kalshi | /markets/will-delcy-rodrguez-be-the-head-of-state-of-venezu-kalshi-kxvenezuelaleader-26dec31-drod |
| Donald Trump | 3¢ | ±0 | $117 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-be-the-head-of-state-of-venezuel-kalshi-kxvenezuelaleader-26dec31-djt |
| Edmundo González | 5¢ | +1pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-edmundo-gonzlez-urrutia-be-the-head-of-state-kalshi-kxvenezuelaleader-26dec31-egon |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jorge-rodrguez-be-the-head-of-state-of-venezu-kalshi-kxvenezuelaleader-26dec31-jrod |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 29 |
| 2026-04-25 | 43 |
| 2026-05-02 | 32 |
| 2026-05-09 | 31 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Nicolás Maduro +5pp 61→66¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Edmundo González Urrutia, Venezuela's opposition leader recognized by many countries, will hold the formal title of head of state by year-end 2026. At 26%, the market reflects significant uncertainty despite his recognition by numerous nations as the legitimate president. The current level reflects Nicolás Maduro's strong institutional control (priced at 62%) and his consolidation of state apparatus, offset against ongoing political pressure and international support for González. Key uncertainties include whether opposition movements can overcome security force loyalty to the incumbent regime, the trajectory of international diplomatic efforts, and potential negotiations that could reshape Venezuela's political landscape. The proximity to December 31, 2026—just eight months away—means limited time for major institutional shifts through conventional means, though political situations can change rapidly.

### Key factors

- Maduro maintains control of military, security forces, and state institutions as of May 2026, which markets price at higher probability (62%) than González succession
- Multiple international actors recognize González as legitimate president, but this hasn't translated to de facto control of Venezuelan territory or government functions
- González's probability sits roughly equal to Delcy Rodríguez (26%), suggesting market uncertainty about which opposition or alternative figure might emerge as head of state
- The eight-month timeframe requires either negotiated transition, electoral process, or significant institutional collapse—all low-probability events by December 2026
- Market pricing across related contracts shows Maduro most likely at year-end (62%) with remaining probability distributed among multiple alternatives rather than consolidated behind any single challenger

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezuelaleader
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=venezuelaleader

## License

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