# Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Jun 1, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 4 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/venezuelaleader2
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.141Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $908

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 3¢ | +1pp | $790 | kalshi | /markets/will-delcy-rodrguez-be-the-head-of-state-of-venezu-kalshi-kxvenezuelaleader2-26jun01-drod |
| Nicolás Maduro | 92¢ | −3pp | $118 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicols-maduro-be-the-head-of-state-of-venezue-kalshi-kxvenezuelaleader2-26jun01-nmad |
| María Corina Machado | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mara-corina-machado-be-the-head-of-state-of-v-kalshi-kxvenezuelaleader2-26jun01-mcm |
| Edmundo González | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-edmundo-gonzlez-be-the-head-of-state-of-venez-kalshi-kxvenezuelaleader2-26jun01-egon |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 36 |
| 2026-04-25 | 47 |
| 2026-05-02 | 50 |
| 2026-05-08 | 49 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Nicolás Maduro +10pp 86→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Nicolás Maduro −7pp 93→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Delcy Rodríguez −3pp 7→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Nicolás Maduro −3pp 96→93¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Delcy Rodríguez, current Venezuelan Vice President, will serve as head of state by June 1, 2026—roughly one month away. The relatively low 32% probability suggests markets view Nicolás Maduro's continued rule as more likely, though the 26% December contract for Rodríguez indicates ongoing uncertainty about Venezuelan leadership through year-end. The probability is driven primarily by political instability in Venezuela and the possibility of unexpected leadership transitions. The key catalyst is the immediate timeframe: with only four weeks until resolution, any major political crisis, institutional breakdown, or international intervention would need to occur very soon to alter the current leadership structure. Related markets show traders assign 62% probability to Maduro remaining in place through December, suggesting most expect continuity rather than near-term succession.

### Key factors

- The extremely short timeframe (29 days) narrows scenarios where Rodríguez assumes office to sudden political upheaval or forced transitions
- Maduro's December contract prices at 62% suggest traders expect him to remain in power through year-end, creating tension with the lower June probability
- No imminent scheduled elections or constitutional processes are publicly set for late May 2026 that would formally transfer power
- Rodríguez's current institutional position as Vice President makes her a natural succession candidate but does not automatically translate to near-term assumption of office
- Venezuelan political outcomes show high volatility in prediction markets, as reflected in the wide spread between June and December contract prices

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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