# Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata

> Ventforet Kōfu leads at 51%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:49.889Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Ventforet Kōfu at 51%
- Runner-up: Júbilo Iwata at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventforet Kōfu | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-ventforet-kfu-polymarket-0xda69dd67b32702248a1fdf939b379ea7c8201b93e73c1a33eb65247e6f1fca85 |
| Júbilo Iwata | 36¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-jbilo-iwata-polymarket-0x6ee605fe8a8604a53a48ed5e221f006afa4366bf6c2d36a5511734a8b7d8c0b5 |
| Draw (Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata) | 35¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata-draw-ventforet-kfu-vs-polymarket-0x8b615bf029c7087ea75426f4483af357fb2d8ddeb2adf1109cbc7437cf877665 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ventforet Kōfu | Júbilo Iwata |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | 38 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 50% probability reflects that market participants view Ventforet Kōfu and Júbilo Iwata as evenly matched in their upcoming match. The market is pricing near parity despite sparse trading volume across related contracts, suggesting limited consensus on team form, recent performance, or head-to-head dynamics. Key drivers of the probability include each team's current league standing, recent win-loss records, injury status, and home/away advantage. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty when played; actual match odds from Japanese football bookmakers may show significant divergence from this 50% level. Secondary markets on goals and handicaps (Júbilo favored at -1.5, priced at 33¢) suggest traders lean slightly toward Júbilo Iwata, yet the winner-take-all contract remains balanced. Resolution depends entirely on the final score of the scheduled fixture.

### Key factors

- Júbilo Iwata is priced lower on handicap markets (-1.5 at 33¢), indicating expectation of a competitive or slight Júbilo victory rather than a Ventforet draw
- Both Teams to Score contract at 50¢ suggests moderate likelihood of an open match rather than a defensive result
- Trading volume across all related contracts is at $0 in 24 hours, indicating minimal market depth and potential for sharp movement on new information
- J-League standings, recent form, and goal differential for each team as of early May 2026 will anchor reasonable probability ranges
- Match scheduling, team roster availability, and weather conditions nearer to kickoff could shift perception from the current 50% baseline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ventforet-kfu-vs-jbilo-iwata

## License

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