# Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch — $1.5B

> $1B leads at 40%, runner-up 28% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ventuals-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.672Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $1B at 40%
- Runner-up: $100M at 28%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $13

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1B | 40¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventuals-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0x9f792d81fcffb9ee4b2ae766ac286512712327cd93925eed60d512f2c0805c6a |
| $100M | 28¢ | +1pp | $13 | polymarket | /markets/ventuals-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x2232353eadccd26a40d742e78710cbbe11b4a4edea3de0f1ec0ffaea09ded474 |
| $1.5B | 28¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventuals-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-15b-polymarket-0x035a884ce6f5336373bf691a94a8bf26ce9cb7442b944f611596f1f979dc80b5 |
| $300M | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventuals-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0x86575cc9ae593201e788fbcd30a07be98c8d922a63994a0424ea0d620ae97e03 |
| $2B | 9¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventuals-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-2b-polymarket-0x0042924c2b33e9e7a2ac2969ad7e1be3c790ef80be526350d7fe2b936e18d1de |
| $500M | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventuals-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x2774a88561f965120ffcb9e4027503e9a7aeca484be187f409fef00ce3033194 |
| $800M | 5¢ | −30pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ventuals-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0x4f5fd359d70d8694ac8d366117d91023d0504e5f402b11c16bc6fea497fe2646 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $1B | $100M | $1.5B |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 30 | 12 |
| 2026-04-11 | 4 | 22 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 34 | 9 |
| 2026-04-28 | 48 | 50 | 48 |
| 2026-05-02 | 39 | 33 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 37 | 29 | 33 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $2B −37pp 42→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $800M −30pp 36→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $1B −13pp 34→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $1B +10pp 21→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $1.5B −9pp 44→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 35% probability that Ventuals will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $1.5 billion on its first day of trading. The current probability reflects modest confidence in reaching this valuation tier, sitting between the 17% implied by lower FDV thresholds ($800M-$1B) and the 89-94% probability assigned to much lower valuations ($50M-$100M). Key drivers include Ventuals' current market positioning, comparable project launches in the same ecosystem, and momentum leading up to the token release date. The resolution will depend entirely on the trading activity and market conditions observed during the first 24 hours post-launch, making near-term announcements, exchange listings, and broader market sentiment critical variables. Contract pricing shows meaningful disagreement across different valuation scenarios, suggesting genuine uncertainty about where initial demand will settle.

### Key factors

- Current price correlation: lower FDV thresholds trade at 17-44¢ while $50-100M thresholds trade at 89-94¢, indicating market consensus expects modest initial valuations but meaningful debate about mid-tier outcomes
- Comparable launch analysis: similar token projects' first-day FDVs and how Ventuals' metrics stack against historical precedent for projects in its category
- Exchange listing and liquidity conditions: which platforms list VENTUALS, trading pair availability, and initial liquidity depth on launch day
- Market conditions at launch: concurrent events, macroeconomic factors, and broader crypto market sentiment during the specific 24-hour resolution window
- Community and pre-launch activity signals: transaction volume, holder distribution, and engagement metrics in the period immediately before trading begins

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ventuals-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ventuals-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

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