# Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner

> Phil Scott leads at 97%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 16 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vermont-governor-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.122Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: Phil Scott at 97%
- Runner-up: John Rodgers at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Scott | 97¢ | −26pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/vermont-governor-republican-primary-winner-phil-sc-polymarket-0x02c23da27e72ea0b2823e6399a59a056f12c5d5d52462561362412db398253e9 |
| John Rodgers | 3¢ | +12pp | $887 | polymarket | /markets/vermont-governor-republican-primary-winner-john-ro-polymarket-0x9d6d218ece67e09513c6a0b7954763f006033c9274ffe8eedbe0c82d8197e7e2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Phil Scott | John Rodgers |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 65 | 26 |
| 2026-05-14 | 96 | 10 |
| 2026-05-21 | 92 | 12 |
| 2026-05-28 | 70 | 15 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Phil Scott −26pp 96→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · John Rodgers +12pp 3→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · John Rodgers +7pp 12→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · John Rodgers −7pp 19→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · John Rodgers −7pp 12→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Phil Scott holds a 95% market probability to win the Vermont Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting strong expectations that he will secure the nomination. Scott, Vermont's incumbent governor, benefits from substantial name recognition, an established political apparatus, and the structural advantage of incumbency in primary contests. The primary outcome depends heavily on whether credible challengers emerge or consolidate support before voting occurs, and on voter appetite for an incumbent versus alternative candidates. The Vermont Republican primary is scheduled for August 2026, which will be the decisive moment for resolving this market. Until then, movement in these probabilities would likely reflect changes in candidate entry decisions, polling data, endorsements from party establishment figures, or significant shifts in Scott's approval ratings or scandal developments.

### Key factors

- Phil Scott is Vermont's sitting governor with proven ability to win statewide elections in a Democratic-leaning state, giving him structural advantages in name recognition and organization
- No clear, well-funded alternative Republican primary candidate has emerged as of mid-2026 to substantially challenge Scott's nomination
- The August 2026 Vermont Republican primary date is the binding event that will determine the winner and resolve all related market contracts
- Incumbent governors typically dominate their party's primary contests absent major approval collapse or scandal; Scott's current favorability data would be a critical input
- Low market volume on the runner-up contract (John Rodgers at 8 cents) suggests limited conviction in alternative outcomes or candidate differentiation among traders

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vermont-governor-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vermont-governor-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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