# Will Trump veto at least 3 bills before Jan 1, 2027

> At least 1 leads at 84%, runner-up 47% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vetocount
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.648Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least 1 at 84%
- Runner-up: At least 2 at 47%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $165

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 84¢ | +1pp | $165 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-veto-at-least-1-bills-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxvetocount-27jan-1 |
| At least 2 | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-veto-at-least-2-bills-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxvetocount-27jan-2 |
| At least 3 | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-veto-at-least-3-bills-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxvetocount-27jan-3 |
| At least 4 | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-veto-at-least-4-bills-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxvetocount-27jan-4 |
| At least 5 | 15¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-veto-at-least-5-bills-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxvetocount-27jan-5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 82 | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 82 | 46 | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 82 | 51 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 82 | — | 41 |
| 2026-04-30 | 85 | 48 | 41 |
| 2026-05-01 | 88 | — | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | — | 41 |
| 2026-05-08 | 85 | — | 41 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · At least 1 −4pp 88→84¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects whether Trump will veto at least 3 bills before January 1, 2027. The 88% probability suggests market participants view this outcome as highly likely given Trump's historical veto record and the legislative landscape. The current Republican congressional majority and Trump's stated policy priorities would influence veto likelihood—a unified government typically faces fewer veto-triggering scenarios, which could lower this probability, while increased legislative opposition or bills conflicting with stated positions would raise it. The key driver of resolution will be actual legislative activity in the second half of 2026, when Congress passes bills requiring presidential action. With 8 months remaining, sufficient time exists for 3+ veto opportunities, though the exact number depends on Congress sending bills Trump opposes and whether he uses the veto power rather than accepting compromise.

### Key factors

- Trump's historical veto rate during his first term (10 vetoes across 4 years) compared to typical presidential patterns
- The current composition of Congress and likelihood of bills that conflict with Trump administration policy priorities
- Legislative activity levels expected from June through December 2026, including appropriations bills and potential contentious legislation
- Whether Trump uses veto power or accepts congressional compromise bills without exercising the veto pen
- The definition of "bills" in the contract and whether pocket vetoes or other executive rejections count toward the threshold

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vetocount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vetocount
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.