# VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sc-freiburg-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $748

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 35 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that the VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg match will have additional markets created or expanded beyond standard offerings. The 46% level suggests moderate uncertainty about whether supplementary betting options will materialize. Market depth and trading volume on primary contracts would likely influence this outcome—higher activity on existing matches typically correlates with expansion to secondary markets. The main catalyst is the match date itself; as the fixture approaches, sportsbooks and prediction platforms typically decide their final market suite based on expected liquidity and user demand. Post-match settlement occurs immediately after the fixture concludes, making timing predictable.

### Key factors

- Current aggregate volume across listed related contracts is minimal ($177 in 24h volume on the highest-traded item), suggesting limited market infrastructure or user interest in related Chinese football fixtures
- Four separate contracts referenced aggregate to 46%, but three show zero 24-hour volume, indicating potential data staleness or insufficient trader participation
- The match date and kick-off time would determine when market expansion decisions are finalized, but no specific timing data is provided in available information
- VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg are Bundesliga clubs; markets typically expand more readily for top-tier European leagues versus secondary Asian fixtures
- No information about book-maker announcements, user petitions, or stated plans regarding additional market creation is available to weigh

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sc-freiburg-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vfb-stuttgart-vs-sc-freiburg-more-markets

## License

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