# VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 10 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sc-freiburg
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:20:31.354Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 42% / Polymarket 39% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $206

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB eSports | 12¢ | — | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-vfb-esports-win-the-g2-nord-vs-vfb-esports-le-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may061100g2nvfb-vfb |
| G2 NORD | 87¢ | — | $86 | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-nord-win-the-g2-nord-vs-vfb-esports-league-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may061100g2nvfb-g2n |
| VfB eSports | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vfb-esports-win-map-2-in-the-g2-nord-vs-vfb-e-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may061100g2nvfb-2-vfb |
| VfB eSports | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vfb-esports-win-map-1-in-the-g2-nord-vs-vfb-e-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may061100g2nvfb-1-vfb |
| Over 2.5 maps | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-maps-be-played-in-the-g2-nord-vs-vfb-kalshi-kxloltotalmaps-26may061100g2nvfb-3 |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: VfB Stuttgart | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-champions-leag-polymarket-0x853aeb3bdc40dec894ce6c089ed9ea3bc3d0dc5f17a445f1cb9c1214f3b6c8df |
| Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: VfB Stuttgart | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-europa-league-polymarket-0x395eae45cc29ff915a36871eaa9e6e61aef164b306845d82a69940c802f5bd51 |
| G2 NORD | 84¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-nord-win-map-1-in-the-g2-nord-vs-vfb-espor-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may061100g2nvfb-1-g2n |
| Winner: VfB Stuttgart | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/dfb-pokal-winner-vfb-stuttgart-polymarket-0x0b56bb6a30f7bcf2350e6f2594a87ca140a2aed147e09bef7ed1f16e6a7859b2 |
| G2 NORD | 84¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-nord-win-map-2-in-the-g2-nord-vs-vfb-espor-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may061100g2nvfb-2-g2n |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 37 |
| 2026-04-26 | 41 |
| 2026-05-03 | 20 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Winner: VfB Stuttgart +8pp 20→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Winner: VfB Stuttgart −7pp 28→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Winner: VfB Stuttgart −6pp 21→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: VfB Stuttgart +3pp 15→18¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sc-freiburg
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vfb-stuttgart-vs-sc-freiburg

## License

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