# Will Wild Horse Nine win Golden Lion for Best Film award at the 83rd Venice Festival

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 16 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vfilmfestival
Updated: 2026-08-10T04:20:50.691Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-13

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $476

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Martin McDonagh | 30¢ | +10pp | $328 | kalshi | /markets/will-martin-mcdonagh-win-venice-film-festival-silv-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-silv26-mart |
| Wild Horse Nine | 18¢ | +1pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-wild-horse-nine-win-silver-lion-grand-jury-pr-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-sil26-wil |
| Wild Horse Nine | 13¢ | +2pp | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-wild-horse-nine-win-special-jury-prize-award-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-spe26-wil |
| Primetime | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-primetime-win-special-jury-prize-award-at-the-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-spe26-pri |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-special-jury-prize-award-at-the-83rd-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-spe26-tie |
| Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Danny Boyle | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-danny-boyle-win-venice-film-festival-silver-l-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-silv26-dan |
| Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Werner Herzog | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-werner-herzog-win-venice-film-festival-silver-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-silv26-wer |
| Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Hirozaku Koreeda | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hirozaku-koreeda-win-venice-film-festival-sil-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-silv26-hir |
| Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Lee Chang-dong | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lee-chang-dong-win-venice-film-festival-silve-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-silv26-lee |
| Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Lance Oppenheim | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lance-oppenheim-win-venice-film-festival-silv-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-silv26-lan |
| Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Shinya Tsukamoto | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shinya-tsukamoto-win-venice-film-festival-sil-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-silv26-shi |
| Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-venice-film-festival-silver-lion-awar-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-silv26-tie |
| G-Neung-Han Sa_Rang (Possible Love) | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-g-neung-han-sarang-possible-love-win-silver-l-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-sil26-gneu |
| Primetime | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-primetime-win-silver-lion-grand-jury-prize-aw-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-sil26-pri |
| Un peu avant minuit | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-un-peu-avant-minuit-win-silver-lion-grand-jur-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-sil26-unp |
| Look Back | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-look-back-win-golden-lion-for-best-film-award-kalshi-kxvfilmfestival-gli26-loo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | 15 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-10 · Silver Lion – Award for Best Director award at the 83rd Venice Festival?: Martin McDonagh +10pp 19→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the market's estimated likelihood that the film 'Wild Horse Nine' will receive the Golden Lion award at the 83rd Venice Film Festival, currently priced at 12%. The probability reflects uncertainty about which film will be selected by the festival jury among all competing entries. The level is driven by the film's profile and critical reception relative to other contenders, as well as Venice's historical selection patterns across different genres and production origins. The outcome will be definitively determined when the festival announces its award winners in September 2026, at which point this contract either resolves to full value or expires worthless. Prior festival selections and the strength of this year's overall competition pool are the primary factors shaping current expectations.

### Key factors

- Wild Horse Nine's estimated odds (12%) place it outside the top tier of favorites but suggest meaningful recognition in market assessments
- Related contracts show other films like Primetime trading at 8% for the same award, indicating distributed expectations across multiple potential winners
- The 83rd Venice Film Festival award ceremony occurs in September 2026, providing a fixed resolution date
- Zero 24-hour trading volume on this contract indicates minimal recent price movement and limited market activity updating the valuation
- Wild Horse Nine trades at 16% for the Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize, suggesting different perceived likelihoods depending on award category

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vfilmfestival
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vfilmfestival

## License

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