# Will Venture Global, Inc. report Above 1900 tbtu lng volumes in fiscal 2026

> Above 1780 tbtu leads at 94%, runner-up 88% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vga
Updated: 2026-08-27T09:20:51.626Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1780 tbtu at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 1820 tbtu at 88%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $100

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1780 tbtu | 94¢ | −46pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-venture-global-inc-report-above-1780-tbtu-lng-kalshi-kxvga-27feblngvol-1780 |
| Above 1820 tbtu | 88¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-venture-global-inc-report-above-1820-tbtu-lng-kalshi-kxvga-27feblngvol-1820 |
| Above 1860 tbtu | 62¢ | −10pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-venture-global-inc-report-above-1860-tbtu-lng-kalshi-kxvga-27feblngvol-1860 |
| Above 1900 tbtu | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-venture-global-inc-report-above-1900-tbtu-lng-kalshi-kxvga-27feblngvol-1900 |
| Above 1940 tbtu | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-venture-global-inc-report-above-1940-tbtu-lng-kalshi-kxvga-27feblngvol-1940 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1780 tbtu | Above 1820 tbtu | Above 1860 tbtu |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | 40 | 32 | 22 |
| 2026-08-20 | 35 | 65 | 47 |
| 2026-08-26 | 48 | 73 | 49 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-24 · Above 1780 tbtu +59pp 35→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Above 1780 tbtu −46pp 94→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 1820 tbtu +22pp 65→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Above 1820 tbtu −14pp 87→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 1780 tbtu −13pp 48→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Venture Global's fiscal 2026 LNG production volumes will determine its output capacity relative to contracted commitments. Markets currently price a 95% chance the company exceeds 1,780 tbtu but only 22% odds it surpasses 1,900 tbtu, suggesting modest growth expectations. Production levels depend on successful plant ramp-ups, particularly Plaquemines and Calcasieu Pass facilities coming online and operating at planned capacity. Operational disruptions—weather, maintenance, technical issues—or accelerated production could shift these probabilities materially. The resolution will occur when Venture Global releases its fiscal 2026 financial results, likely in early 2027, revealing actual throughput volumes against these tiered benchmarks.

### Key factors

- Plaquemines and Calcasieu Pass LNG plants' production ramp rates and operational reliability through 2026
- Contract volumes already signed with customers versus available capacity across all Venture Global facilities
- Operational downtime frequency, planned maintenance schedules, and unplanned outages during the fiscal year
- Actual feedstock (natural gas) availability and delivery constraints from upstream suppliers
- Fiscal 2026 year-end reported volumes in Venture Global's official financial statements or investor disclosures

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vga
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vga

## License

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