# Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama

> Vissel Kōbe leads at 59%, runner-up 25% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vissel-k-vs-fagiano-okayama
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.988Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: Vissel Kōbe at 59%
- Runner-up: Draw (Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama) at 25%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $105

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kōbe | 59¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vissel-kbe-vs-fagiano-okayama-vissel-kbe-polymarket-0x610d322b2ae2e4e499c98e9323c305aec9a24c7f9161b943faae3d2803adb693 |
| Draw (Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama) | 25¢ | — | $40 | polymarket | /markets/vissel-kbe-vs-fagiano-okayama-draw-vissel-kbe-vs-f-polymarket-0xc9b62bb3718149acde5a92b7911fe49befdefecf5ccc2ff73423453a9395d3a2 |
| Fagiano Okayama | 18¢ | −8pp | $65 | polymarket | /markets/vissel-kbe-vs-fagiano-okayama-fagiano-okayama-polymarket-0x3f0bb016c7c87f14197ce5c05c14e36e139199b9e31b4790d597a59d0431f9b7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Vissel Kōbe | Draw (Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama) | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 52 | 31 | 25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 59 | — | 17 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Fagiano Okayama −8pp 25→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Vissel Kōbe +7pp 52→59¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Vissel Kōbe will defeat Fagiano Okayama in an upcoming match. At 41%, Vissel Kōbe is favored but faces material competition probability, with a draw at 33% and Fagiano Okayama at 30%. The pricing reflects Vissel Kōbe's higher historical performance tier in the Japanese football league system, though Fagiano Okayama remains competitive. Current contract volumes show minimal recent trading activity. The match outcome will be determined when the fixture is played; the specific date and venue conditions—such as home-field advantage, recent form, and team availability—will be primary drivers of final result probability shifts before kickoff. Teams' recent injury status and league position momentum heading into the match represent key variables affecting win probability.

### Key factors

- Vissel Kōbe's league standing and recent win-loss record relative to Fagiano Okayama's current season performance
- Home vs. away designation and historical head-to-head results between the two clubs
- Player availability, including injury status and suspensions affecting both teams' lineups
- Recent form trend for each team (goals scored/conceded, momentum) in the 2-4 weeks preceding the fixture
- Match date and venue conditions that could influence playing style or team preparation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vissel-k-vs-fagiano-okayama
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vissel-k-vs-fagiano-okayama

## License

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