# Will Hailey Bieber be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 18 contracts — refreshed 2 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voguecover
Updated: 2026-09-22T02:20:52.702Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | 12¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aja-wilson-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-vo-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-aja |
| Alex Consani | 13¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-consani-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-ale |
| Ariana Grande | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-ari |
| Bella Hadid | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bella-hadid-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-v-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-bel |
| Beyoncé | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-beyonc-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-vogue-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-bey |
| Charli xcx | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-charli-xcx-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-vo-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-cha |
| Coco Gauff | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-coco-gauff-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-vo-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-coc |
| Dua Lipa | 19¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dua-lipa-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-vogu-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-dua |
| Florence Pugh | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-florence-pugh-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-flo |
| Hailey Bieber | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hailey-bieber-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-hai |
| Jennie | 10¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jennie-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-vogue-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-jenn |
| Kendall Jenner | 18¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kendall-jenner-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-o-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-ken |
| Lady Gaga | 38¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lady-gaga-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-vog-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-lad |
| Margot Robbie | 12¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-margot-robbie-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-mar |
| Miley Cyrus | 10¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miley-cyrus-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-v-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-mil |
| Nicole Kidman | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicole-kidman-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-nic |
| Rihanna | 22¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rihanna-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issue-of-vogue-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-rih |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 7¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sabrina-carpenter-be-on-the-cover-of-any-issu-kalshi-kxvoguecover-27-sab |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | 38 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Lady Gaga +6pp 38→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Lady Gaga −4pp 44→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · A’ja Wilson +3pp 9→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Alex Consani +3pp 10→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Bella Hadid +3pp 8→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the probability that Hailey Bieber will appear on the cover of a US Vogue issue released in 2026. As of late July 2026, only five months remain in the year, which significantly constrains the remaining opportunities for new cover features. Hailey Bieber is an established celebrity with prior Vogue coverage, but her appearance on the cover depends on editorial timing decisions, competing cover candidates, and whether she has a relevant cultural moment or project launching. The low probability reflects both the limited calendar window remaining and Vogue's selective cover selection process. Resolution occurs automatically on December 31, 2026, when the year concludes and all published issues become finalized.

### Key factors

- Only five months remain in 2026; Vogue typically publishes 12-13 issues yearly, leaving roughly 4-5 potential remaining 2026 issues
- Hailey Bieber has been featured on Vogue covers previously but competition for remaining 2026 issues includes established celebrities and emerging figures
- Vogue cover selection typically aligns with major film releases, album launches, fashion collections, or significant personal milestones rather than random timing
- No publicly announced Hailey Bieber major project or campaign launch has been widely reported for the remaining 2026 calendar
- The 7% market probability is notably lower than comparable celebrities on Kalshi, suggesting market assessment she is unlikely to secure a 2026 cover slot

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voguecover
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=voguecover

## License

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