# Will Die Linke receive at least 24% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 11 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voteberlin
Updated: 2026-09-21T14:20:50.885Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-20

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $135

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 21% | 14¢ | — | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-receive-at-least-21-of-valid-second-votes-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20afd-21 |
| At least 14% | 75¢ | +5pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-grne-receive-at-least-14-of-valid-second-vote-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20grun-14 |
| At least 16% | 39¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-grne-receive-at-least-16-of-valid-second-vote-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20grun-16 |
| At least 24% | 5¢ | −20pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-die-linke-receive-at-least-24-of-valid-second-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20dlin-24 |
| At least 22% | 6¢ | −40pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-die-linke-receive-at-least-22-of-valid-second-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20dlin-22 |
| At least 5% | 93¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spd-receive-at-least-5-of-valid-second-votes-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20spd-5 |
| At least 12% | 82¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-grne-receive-at-least-12-of-valid-second-vote-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20grun-12 |
| At least 16% | 5¢ | −71pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-die-linke-receive-at-least-16-of-valid-second-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20dlin-16 |
| At least 18% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-die-linke-receive-at-least-18-of-valid-second-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20dlin-18 |
| At least 20% | 5¢ | −51pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-die-linke-receive-at-least-20-of-valid-second-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20dlin-20 |
| At least 17% | 83¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cdu-receive-at-least-17-of-valid-second-votes-kalshi-kxvoteberlin-26sep20cdu-17 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 62 |
| 2026-09-19 | 40 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · At least 16% −71pp 91→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · At least 20% −51pp 71→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · At least 22% −40pp 47→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · At least 24% −20pp 25→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · At least 14% +5pp 70→75¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction asks whether Die Linke will secure at least 24% of the vote in Berlin's 2026 state election. At 42% probability, the market suggests this outcome is somewhat more likely than not, but still carries significant uncertainty. Die Linke's performance depends heavily on voter retention from its traditional base and whether it can maintain relevance amid competition from other left-leaning parties. The SPD's strong implied probability (86%) and the AfD's robust polling floor (81-93% for double-digit thresholds) suggest a fragmented left could help Die Linke consolidate support, but competing coalitions could pull votes away. The key catalyst will be the final election results on September 26, 2026, when actual vote shares will resolve all related contracts. Polling trends in the weeks leading up to that date will provide incremental signals about whether Die Linke maintains, gains, or loses support relative to current expectations.

### Key factors

- Die Linke received 14.0% in the 2021 Berlin state election, so reaching 24% represents a 10-point gain or roughly 70% vote-share growth
- SPD is priced at 86% for 7%+ (very safe), while AfD shows 81-93% confidence for 11-15% thresholds, suggesting a crowded moderate-right makes left consolidation possible
- CDU is priced at only 28% for 15%, indicating Berlin's electorate is structurally left-leaning relative to national patterns
- No intermediate polling data or major political events between today and September 26, 2026 are specified, making this essentially a snapshot of expectation
- The 42% probability implies roughly even odds, suggesting Die Linke's path to 24% is plausible but not the base case

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voteberlin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=voteberlin
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.