# Will John Fetterman vote for Todd Blanche

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 9 contracts — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voteblanche
Updated: 2026-06-28T22:20:49.099Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $626

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn | 57¢ | +1pp | $305 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-cornyn-vote-for-todd-blanche-john-cornyn-kalshi-kxvoteblanche-27-jcor |
| Susan Collins | 23¢ | ±0 | $305 | kalshi | /markets/will-susan-collins-vote-for-todd-blanche-susan-col-kalshi-kxvoteblanche-27-scol |
| Mitch McConnell | 26¢ | +3pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-mitch-mcconnell-vote-for-todd-blanche-mitch-m-kalshi-kxvoteblanche-27-mmcc |
| Thom Tillis | 53¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-thom-tillis-vote-for-todd-blanche-thom-tillis-kalshi-kxvoteblanche-27-ttil |
| Rand Paul | 29¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rand-paul-vote-for-todd-blanche-rand-paul-kalshi-kxvoteblanche-27-rpau |
| Lisa Murkowski | 28¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lisa-murkowski-vote-for-todd-blanche-lisa-mur-kalshi-kxvoteblanche-27-lmur |
| Bill Cassidy | 25¢ | −25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-cassidy-vote-for-todd-blanche-bill-cassi-kalshi-kxvoteblanche-27-bcas |
| John Fetterman | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-fetterman-vote-for-todd-blanche-john-fet-kalshi-kxvoteblanche-27-jfet |
| Tommy Tuberville | 77¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tommy-tuberville-vote-for-todd-blanche-tommy-kalshi-kxvoteblanche-27-ttub |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 44 |
| 2026-06-14 | 10 |
| 2026-06-21 | 19 |
| 2026-06-27 | 51 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Tommy Tuberville +48pp 30→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · John Cornyn +34pp 35→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Bill Cassidy −25pp 56→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Tommy Tuberville +25pp 5→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · John Cornyn +24pp 11→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates the likelihood that Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) votes affirmatively for Todd Blanche in a Senate vote. The 50% probability reflects significant uncertainty about Fetterman's position on this matter. Fetterman's vote would likely depend on the specific context of the Blanche nomination or proposal, his alignment with Democratic leadership on the issue, and his constituent preferences in Pennsylvania. The contract would resolve when a relevant Senate vote occurs, or when Fetterman's position becomes publicly confirmed through official statements or voting records. Related contracts show wide variation in predicted support across Republican senators (ranging from 46% for Rand Paul to 69% for Tommy Tuberville), while Fetterman's contract trades far lower at 3 cents, suggesting market skepticism about Democratic support overall. The resolution depends on whether and when such a vote is scheduled in the Senate.

### Key factors

- Fetterman's previous voting record and public statements on similar nominees or policy areas
- The nature of the Blanche nomination, vote, or proposal and its alignment with Democratic Party positions
- Democratic leadership signaling or whip activity indicating party-line voting expectations
- The timing and scheduling of any Senate vote that would trigger contract resolution
- Fetterman's stated priorities and constituent feedback in Pennsylvania regarding the specific matter at hand

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voteblanche
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=voteblanche

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.