# How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)

> Above 50 leads at 90%, runner-up 83% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 18 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voteclarity
Updated: 2026-06-19T14:20:19.767Z
Category: crypto · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 50 at 90%
- Runner-up: Above 55 at 83%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 50 | 90¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senate-members-will-vote-yea-on-a-crypto-kalshi-kxvoteclarity-26may16-t50 |
| Above 55 | 83¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senate-members-will-vote-yea-on-a-crypto-kalshi-kxvoteclarity-26may16-t55 |
| Above 58 | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senate-members-will-vote-yea-on-a-crypto-kalshi-kxvoteclarity-26may16-t58 |
| Above 60 | 69¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senate-members-will-vote-yea-on-a-crypto-kalshi-kxvoteclarity-26may16-t60 |
| Above 62 | 62¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senate-members-will-vote-yea-on-a-crypto-kalshi-kxvoteclarity-26may16-t62 |
| Above 64 | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senate-members-will-vote-yea-on-a-crypto-kalshi-kxvoteclarity-26may16-t64 |
| Above 66 | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senate-members-will-vote-yea-on-a-crypto-kalshi-kxvoteclarity-26may16-t66 |
| Above 68 | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senate-members-will-vote-yea-on-a-crypto-kalshi-kxvoteclarity-26may16-t68 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 50 | Above 55 | Above 58 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | — | — | 89 |
| 2026-05-26 | — | 32 | 27 |
| 2026-05-27 | 90 | 47 | 37 |
| 2026-05-31 | 90 | 83 | 76 |
| 2026-06-11 | 90 | 83 | 76 |
| 2026-06-18 | 90 | 83 | 76 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This measures the likelihood that a Senate crypto market structure bill will receive at least 56 votes (simple majority plus one). The 4% probability reflects significant skepticism about passage. Crypto-related legislation typically faces partisan division and competing regulatory philosophies; support would require either bipartisan consensus or substantial party-line voting. The main factors pushing probabilities lower include fragmented Senate opinion on crypto oversight and the legislative calendar's competing priorities. Upward pressure would come from narrowed bill language gaining broader appeal or demonstration of urgent market need. Resolution depends on whether such a bill reaches a floor vote and, if scheduled, its actual vote count. Current low volume and stable pricing suggest limited market interest or conviction in near-term legislative movement on this specific proposal.

### Key factors

- Senate Democrats and Republicans have historically divided on crypto regulation scope and enforcement authority, making 56+ votes a high threshold without significant compromise language
- The bill must advance through committee and floor scheduling, which requires leadership prioritization amid competing legislative demands
- Recent crypto market volatility and regulatory clarity needs could shift urgency and support levels among voting members
- Bipartisan working groups on crypto framework have produced varied outcomes; consensus on market structure specifics remains unclear as of May 2026
- A floor vote would directly resolve the contract; absence of scheduled voting within the current session would effectively cap passage probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voteclarity
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=voteclarity
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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