# Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Los Angeles County, California

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 20 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votecounty
Updated: 2026-09-20T17:20:52.084Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 82¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-james-talarico-receive-at-least-50-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatetx26starrjtal-50 |
| At least 64% | 22¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-james-talarico-receive-at-least-64-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatetx26webbjtal-64 |
| At least 54% | 44¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-katie-hobbs-receive-at-least-54-of-the-popula-kalshi-kxvotecounty-govpartyaz26maricopakhob-54 |
| At least 54% | 84¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-james-talarico-receive-at-least-54-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatetx26hidalgojtal-54 |
| At least 62% | 91¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-roy-cooper-receive-at-least-62-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatenc26wakercoo-62 |
| At least 56% | 93¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-ossoff-receive-at-least-56-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatega26cobbjoss-56 |
| At least 58% | 89¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-ossoff-receive-at-least-58-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatega26gwinnettjoss-58 |
| At least 72% | 88¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-ossoff-receive-at-least-72-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatega26fultonjoss-72 |
| At least 82% | 3¢ | — | $900 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-turek-receive-at-least-82-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senateia26johnsonjtur-82 |
| At least 84% | 4¢ | — | $856 | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-ossoff-receive-at-least-84-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatega26fultonjoss-84 |
| At least 80% | 3¢ | — | $806 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-turek-receive-at-least-80-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senateia26johnsonjtur-80 |
| At least 76% | 10¢ | — | $738 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-turek-receive-at-least-76-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senateia26johnsonjtur-76 |
| At least 94% | 5¢ | — | $738 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-shapiro-receive-at-least-94-of-the-popul-kalshi-kxvotecounty-govpartypa26philadelphiajsha-94 |
| At least 62% | 40¢ | — | $597 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-talarico-receive-at-least-62-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatetx26webbjtal-62 |
| At least 60% | 48¢ | — | $596 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-talarico-receive-at-least-60-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatetx26hidalgojtal-60 |
| At least 96% | 5¢ | — | $540 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-shapiro-receive-at-least-96-of-the-popul-kalshi-kxvotecounty-govpartypa26philadelphiajsha-96 |
| At least 66% | 84¢ | — | $513 | kalshi | /markets/will-roy-cooper-receive-at-least-66-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatenc26mecklenburgrcoo-66 |
| At least 72% | 76¢ | — | $475 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-talarico-receive-at-least-72-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatetx26travisjtal-72 |
| At least 64% | 77¢ | — | $472 | kalshi | /markets/will-roy-cooper-receive-at-least-64-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senatenc26wakercoo-64 |
| At least 74% | 14¢ | — | $439 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-turek-receive-at-least-74-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotecounty-senateia26johnsonjtur-74 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | 54 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market assesses whether Xavier Becerra will exceed a 72% vote share in Los Angeles County during California's 2026 gubernatorial election. The 34% probability reflects skepticism that any candidate achieves this threshold in a county with nearly 10 million residents and substantial political diversity. Becerra's performance depends on statewide momentum, the competitiveness of the race, and turnout patterns in this heavily Democratic area. Even in strongly Democratic counties, gubernatorial results typically show more variation than supermajority outcomes suggest. The election occurs on November 3, 2026. Movement in this probability will likely track broader statewide polling, primary results if applicable, and demographic shifts in voter registration.

### Key factors

- Historical vote shares in LA County gubernatorial races—whether any statewide candidate has exceeded 72% there in the past three cycles
- Statewide polling and primary results as they emerge, indicating whether Becerra faces a competitive general election or runs unopposed effectively
- Turnout composition in LA County relative to state averages, since higher-than-expected Democratic participation could push vote share upward
- The final candidate field and whether major alternative candidates fragment opposition or consolidate around a single challenger
- Registration trends and demographic changes in LA County from 2022 to 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votecounty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=votecounty
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.