# Will Kurt Alme receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 20 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votegeneral
Updated: 2026-09-10T09:20:50.057Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $843

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 40% | 92¢ | +23pp | $604 | kalshi | /markets/will-kurt-alme-receive-at-least-40-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26kalm-40 |
| At least 45% | 69¢ | +32pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-kurt-alme-receive-at-least-45-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26kalm-45 |
| At least 40% | 96¢ | +45pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-ricketts-receive-at-least-40-of-the-popu-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatene26pric-40 |
| At least 35% | 4¢ | +1pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-alani-bankhead-receive-at-least-35-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26aban-35 |
| At least 35% | 96¢ | +36pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-kurt-alme-receive-at-least-35-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26kalm-35 |
| At least 45% | 3¢ | — | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-seth-bodnar-receive-at-least-45-of-the-popula-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26sbod-45 |
| At least 50% | 37¢ | +15pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-kurt-alme-receive-at-least-50-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26kalm-50 |
| At least 10% | 96¢ | +63pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alani-bankhead-receive-at-least-10-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26aban-10 |
| At least 15% | 84¢ | +55pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alani-bankhead-receive-at-least-15-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26aban-15 |
| At least 20% | 51¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alani-bankhead-receive-at-least-20-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26aban-20 |
| At least 25% | 21¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alani-bankhead-receive-at-least-25-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26aban-25 |
| At least 30% | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alani-bankhead-receive-at-least-30-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26aban-30 |
| At least 55% | 13¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kurt-alme-receive-at-least-55-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26kalm-55 |
| At least 60% | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kurt-alme-receive-at-least-60-of-the-popular-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26kalm-60 |
| At least 15% | 95¢ | +62pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seth-bodnar-receive-at-least-15-of-the-popula-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26sbod-15 |
| At least 20% | 86¢ | +56pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seth-bodnar-receive-at-least-20-of-the-popula-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26sbod-20 |
| At least 25% | 62¢ | +21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seth-bodnar-receive-at-least-25-of-the-popula-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26sbod-25 |
| At least 30% | 33¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seth-bodnar-receive-at-least-30-of-the-popula-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26sbod-30 |
| At least 35% | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seth-bodnar-receive-at-least-35-of-the-popula-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26sbod-35 |
| At least 40% | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seth-bodnar-receive-at-least-40-of-the-popula-kalshi-kxvotegeneral-senatemt26sbod-40 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 24 |
| 2026-09-09 | 52 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-09 · At least 10% +63pp 33→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-09 · At least 15% +62pp 33→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-09 · At least 20% +56pp 30→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-09 · At least 15% +55pp 29→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-09 · At least 40% +45pp 45→90¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 42% chance that Democratic candidate Kurt Alme will receive at least 35% of the popular vote in Montana's 2026 Senate election. The probability reflects uncertainty about the race's competitiveness and voter turnout patterns in a state that has leaned Republican in recent cycles. Key factors include Montana's recent electoral history, which has favored Republican Senate candidates, and the composition of likely voters in a midterm election year. The outcome will be determined when ballots are counted following the November 2026 general election, though polling aggregates and fundraising reports in the months leading up to November will provide signals about the race's trajectory.

### Key factors

- Montana has voted Republican in four of the last five Senate elections (2012 being the Democratic exception), suggesting structural disadvantage for Democratic candidates
- Midterm elections typically see different turnout patterns than presidential years, which could affect the Democratic vote share relative to general election baselines
- Fundraising and polling data from summer and fall 2026 will indicate whether Alme is competitive enough to approach or exceed the 35% threshold
- The Republican candidate's strength and campaign resources will directly influence how many votes are available for the Democratic candidate to capture
- Historical third-party and independent candidacy patterns in Montana Senate races affect the denominator for calculating vote-share percentages

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votegeneral
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=votegeneral
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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