# Will Rand Paul vote for Kari Lake

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 7 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votelake
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.866Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch McConnell | 22¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-mitch-mcconnell-vote-for-kari-lake-mitch-mcco-kalshi-kxvotelake-28-mmcc |
| Bill Cassidy | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-cassidy-vote-for-kari-lake-bill-cassidy-kalshi-kxvotelake-28-bcas |
| John Fetterman | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-fetterman-vote-for-kari-lake-john-fetter-kalshi-kxvotelake-28-jfet |
| Lisa Murkowski | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lisa-murkowski-vote-for-kari-lake-lisa-murkow-kalshi-kxvotelake-28-lmur |
| Rand Paul | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rand-paul-vote-for-kari-lake-rand-paul-kalshi-kxvotelake-28-rpau |
| Susan Collins | 33¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-susan-collins-vote-for-kari-lake-susan-collin-kalshi-kxvotelake-28-scol |
| Thom Tillis | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-thom-tillis-vote-for-kari-lake-thom-tillis-kalshi-kxvotelake-28-ttil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 18 |
| 2026-06-12 | 18 |
| 2026-06-19 | 5 |
| 2026-06-25 | 48 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Susan Collins +14pp 19→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Lisa Murkowski −6pp 23→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Lisa Murkowski +6pp 17→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Rand Paul +6pp 45→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Mitch McConnell −5pp 22→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 75% probability that Senator Rand Paul will vote to confirm Kari Lake for a position requiring Senate approval. The high probability reflects Paul's general alignment with Lake on policy issues and his voting record on similar nominations, though it also acknowledges meaningful uncertainty about his final position. Key factors driving the probability include Paul's libertarian positions versus Lake's record, the composition and preferences of the broader Senate, and the specific details of Lake's nomination and Senate floor dynamics. The main resolution point will be when the Senate holds a confirmation vote, at which time Paul's actual vote becomes observable and the market settles. Until then, new information about Lake's positions, Senate negotiations, or statements from Paul himself could shift market expectations.

### Key factors

- Rand Paul's historical voting patterns on similar nominations from Republican presidents and whether this aligns with Lake's stated policy positions
- The overall Senate vote margin and whether the outcome appears predetermined, which could influence Paul's positioning or voting decision
- Public statements from Paul regarding Lake's nomination or related policy areas that would indicate his likely position
- The specific portfolio or position Lake is nominated for, as Paul's vote likelihood may vary significantly by role (executive, judicial, etc.)
- Changes in broader political dynamics between the nomination announcement and scheduled Senate floor vote that could shift Paul's calculus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votelake
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=votelake

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.