# Will Count Binface Party receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Clacton by-election

> At least 5% leads at 83%, runner-up 72% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votepercentbinface
Updated: 2026-07-13T04:20:49.070Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: At least 5% at 83%
- Runner-up: At least 10% at 72%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 5% | 83¢ | +1pp | $242 | kalshi | /markets/will-count-binface-party-receive-at-least-5-of-the-kalshi-kxvotepercentbinface-clactonbyelection26sep01cbin-52 |
| At least 10% | 72¢ | +1pp | $221 | kalshi | /markets/will-count-binface-party-receive-at-least-10-of-th-kalshi-kxvotepercentbinface-clactonbyelection26sep01cbin-55 |
| At least 15% | 57¢ | +1pp | $603 | kalshi | /markets/will-count-binface-party-receive-at-least-15-of-th-kalshi-kxvotepercentbinface-clactonbyelection26sep01cbin-57 |
| At least 20% | 44¢ | −4pp | $774 | kalshi | /markets/will-count-binface-party-receive-at-least-20-of-th-kalshi-kxvotepercentbinface-clactonbyelection26sep01cbin-60 |
| At least 25% | 30¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-count-binface-party-receive-at-least-25-of-th-kalshi-kxvotepercentbinface-clactonbyelection26sep01cbin-62 |
| At least 30% | 24¢ | −6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-count-binface-party-receive-at-least-30-of-th-kalshi-kxvotepercentbinface-clactonbyelection26sep01cbin-65 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 5% | At least 10% | At least 15% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 61 | 56 | 46 |
| 2026-07-09 | 82 | 74 | 68 |
| 2026-07-10 | 83 | 75 | 65 |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — | 66 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · At least 15% +22pp 46→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · At least 5% +21pp 61→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · At least 10% +18pp 56→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · At least 20% +15pp 43→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · At least 25% +10pp 29→39¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This measures whether Count Binface Party will exceed 20% of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election. The 79% probability on the 5% threshold (already received) but only 58% on the 20% threshold suggests traders believe the party will clear modest performance targets but face a steeper climb toward plurality-level support. The gap between price levels reflects uncertainty: reaching 15% appears moderately likely at 68%, while topping 20% requires either significant momentum from the party's current position or a fragmented opposing vote. The main resolution driver is the election itself; movements before that date would reflect polling data, candidate positioning, and local campaign activity. Election day will definitively measure actual vote share against these benchmarks.

### Key factors

- Current polling and vote intention surveys in Clacton ward specifically, rather than national averages
- Turnout levels among potential Binface supporters relative to other candidates' bases
- Whether the party can sustain or grow from any previously demonstrated local support in this constituency
- Strength and fragmentation of opposition candidates—whether votes concentrate among rivals or split across multiple contenders
- Date of the by-election announcement and campaign duration, which affects time available for voter persuasion

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votepercentbinface
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=votepercentbinface
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.