# Will Tom Steyer receive between 20% and 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 44% across 4 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voteprimary
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.025Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-18

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 20% | 13¢ | −1pp | $21K | kalshi | /markets/will-james-fishback-receive-at-least-20-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvoteprimary-govflnomr26jfis-60 |
| At least 10% | 61¢ | +3pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-james-fishback-receive-at-least-10-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvoteprimary-govflnomr26jfis-55 |
| At least 65% | 97¢ | +1pp | $371 | kalshi | /markets/will-brad-lander-receive-at-least-65-of-the-popula-kalshi-kxvoteprimary-ny10d26blanblan-82 |
| At least 30% | 4¢ | −2pp | $314 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-fishback-receive-at-least-30-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvoteprimary-govflnomr26jfis-65 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 45 |
| 2026-06-12 | 24 |
| 2026-06-19 | 21 |
| 2026-06-26 | 43 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · At least 65% +42pp 32→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · At least 65% +18pp 74→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · At least 10% +12pp 48→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · At least 10% +5pp 60→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · At least 20% +4pp 11→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects the probability that Tom Steyer will capture between 20% and 24% of votes in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary election. Steyer's result depends on primary field composition, voter turnout patterns, and whether other moderate or wealthy self-funding candidates enter the race. Currently, contract data suggests modest confidence in this narrow band outcome, with higher probability assigned to him finishing first outright (36 cents) versus achieving exactly this vote share. The primary election date and final candidate field are the critical uncertainties that will resolve this bet, as late-entry candidates or unexpected withdrawal could significantly shift the vote distribution among remaining candidates.

### Key factors

- Steyer's historical performance in California politics and 2020 presidential primary results provide baseline data for expected voter support
- The total number of candidates competing shapes whether 20-24% represents a top-two finish or mid-field outcome
- Voter turnout composition in the primary will affect whether Steyer's coalition mobilizes at expected rates
- Late candidate entries or withdrawals between now and primary day could materially shift vote share percentages
- Media coverage and campaign spending relative to other candidates will influence whether Steyer reaches or stays within this specific vote band

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voteprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=voteprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.