# Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 51% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voterecncs
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.590Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch McConnell | 91¢ | +4pp | $507 | kalshi | /markets/will-mitch-mcconnell-vote-for-the-next-budget-reco-kalshi-kxvoterecncs-may26-mmcc |
| Thom Tillis | 96¢ | +6pp | $302 | kalshi | /markets/will-thom-tillis-vote-for-the-next-budget-reconcil-kalshi-kxvoterecncs-may26-ttil |
| Rand Paul | 17¢ | — | $170 | kalshi | /markets/will-rand-paul-vote-for-the-next-budget-reconcilia-kalshi-kxvoterecncs-may26-rpau |
| John Fetterman | 11¢ | — | $71 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-fetterman-vote-for-the-next-budget-recon-kalshi-kxvoterecncs-may26-jfet |
| Lisa Murkowski | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lisa-murkowski-vote-for-the-next-budget-recon-kalshi-kxvoterecncs-may26-lmur |
| Susan Collins | 79¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-susan-collins-vote-for-the-next-budget-reconc-kalshi-kxvoterecncs-may26-scol |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 53 |
| 2026-05-08 | 84 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Thom Tillis +6pp 83→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Mitch McConnell +4pp 81→85¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/voterecncs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=voterecncs

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.