# Will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act

> Before Oct 1, 2026 leads at 25%, runner-up 22% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votesaveamerica
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.573Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 25%
- Runner-up: Before Nov 3, 2026 at 22%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 25¢ | −6pp | $503 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-senate-vote-on-the-save-america-act-befor-kalshi-kxvotesaveamerica-26may-oct01 |
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 22¢ | −3pp | $767 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-senate-vote-on-the-save-america-act-befor-kalshi-kxvotesaveamerica-26may-nov03 |
| Before Aug 8, 2026 | 20¢ | +1pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-senate-vote-on-the-save-america-act-befor-kalshi-kxvotesaveamerica-26apr-aug08 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Oct 1, 2026 | Before Nov 3, 2026 | Before Aug 8, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | — | 24 |
| 2026-05-28 | 28 | 34 | 23 |
| 2026-06-11 | 25 | 31 | 18 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | — | 18 |
| 2026-06-18 | 23 | 29 | 11 |
| 2026-06-19 | 23 | — | 11 |
| 2026-06-26 | 25 | 27 | 20 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Before Oct 1, 2026 +11pp 20→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Before Nov 3, 2026 +6pp 24→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −6pp 31→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Before Nov 3, 2026 −4pp 28→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −4pp 24→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market tracks whether the Senate will hold a floor vote on the SAVE America Act by August 8, 2026. The 39% probability reflects substantial uncertainty about the bill's legislative path. The current level suggests traders assess meaningful procedural or political obstacles to a Senate vote, though the measure has not been ruled out. Key drivers include whether the bill advances through committee, whether Senate leadership prioritizes it on the floor schedule, and broader legislative bandwidth competing with other priorities. The most concrete near-term catalyst is the June 13 deadline embedded in one contract; if no vote occurs by then, traders will reassess the likelihood of action before the August cutoff, providing clarity on whether delays indicate procedural gridlock or strategic timing.

### Key factors

- The 14% probability for a vote before June 13 versus 27% before June 27 suggests market participants expect either a vote in that two-week window or significant delays pushing past late June
- Committee advancement status and sponsor count will directly indicate whether the bill has sufficient support to reach the Senate floor
- Senate leadership schedule announcements and floor calendar releases are concrete indicators of whether leadership intends to bring the measure to a vote
- Competing legislative priorities and votes scheduled for May-August 2026 will constrain available floor time
- The contract's August 8 resolution date provides a roughly three-month window from today, limiting the timeframe for action

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votesaveamerica
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=votesaveamerica
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.