# Will CDU receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 51% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votesaxanh
Updated: 2026-08-24T00:20:49.910Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 20% | 71¢ | — | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-cdu-receive-at-least-20-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06cdu-20 |
| At least 30% | 92¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-receive-at-least-30-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06afd-30 |
| At least 35% | 82¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-receive-at-least-35-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06afd-35 |
| At least 38% | 75¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-receive-at-least-38-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06afd-38 |
| At least 40% | 61¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-receive-at-least-40-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06afd-40 |
| At least 42% | 45¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-receive-at-least-42-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06afd-42 |
| At least 44% | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-receive-at-least-44-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06afd-44 |
| At least 46% | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-receive-at-least-46-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06afd-46 |
| At least 48% | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-receive-at-least-48-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06afd-48 |
| At least 50% | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-receive-at-least-50-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06afd-50 |
| At least 2% | 90¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bsw-receive-at-least-2-of-the-popular-vote-in-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06bsw-2 |
| At least 3% | 77¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bsw-receive-at-least-3-of-the-popular-vote-in-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06bsw-3 |
| At least 4% | 54¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bsw-receive-at-least-4-of-the-popular-vote-in-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06bsw-4 |
| At least 5% | 29¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bsw-receive-at-least-5-of-the-popular-vote-in-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06bsw-5 |
| At least 6% | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bsw-receive-at-least-6-of-the-popular-vote-in-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06bsw-6 |
| At least 8% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bsw-receive-at-least-8-of-the-popular-vote-in-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06bsw-8 |
| At least 15% | 92¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cdu-receive-at-least-15-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06cdu-15 |
| At least 18% | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cdu-receive-at-least-18-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06cdu-18 |
| At least 22% | 56¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cdu-receive-at-least-22-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06cdu-22 |
| At least 24% | 37¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cdu-receive-at-least-24-of-the-popular-vote-i-kalshi-kxvotesaxanh-26sep06cdu-24 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 43 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the probability that Germany's CDU party will capture at least 20% of votes in the Saxony-Anhalt state election scheduled for September 2026. The current 42% probability reflects uncertainty about whether the CDU can maintain its traditional base in the state while competing against the rising AfD, which markets currently project at higher vote shares. The CDU's result depends on voter turnout patterns, coalition negotiations between mainstream parties, and whether anti-AfD strategic voting consolidates around the CDU or splinters across multiple parties. The election itself in September 2026 will definitively resolve this contract. Recent polling trends, campaign momentum in Saxony-Anhalt, and shifts in east German political dynamics would all shift this probability meaningfully before voting occurs.

### Key factors

- Current polling data for Saxony-Anhalt shows AfD projected significantly higher than CDU, suggesting market skepticism about CDU reaching 20%
- The related contract pricing CDU at 22%+ shows 55¢ probability, implying roughly 45% chance of CDU falling between 20-22%
- AfD contracts across multiple thresholds show high confidence in their dominance (91¢ for 30%+), which inversely constrains CDU's likely vote share
- Saxony-Anhalt has shown stronger AfD support than national averages in recent years, pressuring traditional center-right performance in the state
- The election resolves definitively in September 2026, making recent polling and regional trend data the primary observable inputs

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votesaxanh
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=votesaxanh
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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