# Will Centre Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votesweden
Updated: 2026-08-25T08:20:49.656Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 27% | 86¢ | +30pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-swedish-social-democratic-party-receive-at-le-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sdp-27 |
| At least 29% | 71¢ | +25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-swedish-social-democratic-party-receive-at-le-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sdp-29 |
| At least 30% | 43¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-swedish-social-democratic-party-receive-at-le-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sdp-30 |
| At least 31% | 26¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-swedish-social-democratic-party-receive-at-le-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sdp-31 |
| At least 32% | 18¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-swedish-social-democratic-party-receive-at-le-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sdp-32 |
| At least 33% | 12¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-swedish-social-democratic-party-receive-at-le-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sdp-33 |
| At least 35% | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-swedish-social-democratic-party-receive-at-le-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sdp-35 |
| At least 15% | 86¢ | +35pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-democrats-receive-at-least-15-of-the-p-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sd-15 |
| At least 17% | 75¢ | +31pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-democrats-receive-at-least-17-of-the-p-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sd-17 |
| At least 18% | 62¢ | +28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-democrats-receive-at-least-18-of-the-p-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sd-18 |
| At least 19% | 49¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-democrats-receive-at-least-19-of-the-p-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sd-19 |
| At least 20% | 23¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-democrats-receive-at-least-20-of-the-p-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sd-20 |
| At least 21% | 13¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-democrats-receive-at-least-21-of-the-p-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sd-21 |
| At least 22% | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-democrats-receive-at-least-22-of-the-p-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sd-22 |
| At least 23% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-democrats-receive-at-least-23-of-the-p-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sd-23 |
| At least 25% | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-democrats-receive-at-least-25-of-the-p-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sd-25 |
| At least 28% | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-democrats-receive-at-least-28-of-the-p-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13sd-28 |
| At least 13% | 86¢ | +35pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-moderate-party-receive-at-least-13-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13moderate-13 |
| At least 15% | 73¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-moderate-party-receive-at-least-15-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13moderate-15 |
| At least 16% | 41¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-moderate-party-receive-at-least-16-of-the-pop-kalshi-kxvotesweden-26sep13moderate-16 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | 19 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-25 · At least 15% +35pp 4→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · At least 13% +35pp 8→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · At least 17% +31pp 4→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · At least 27% +30pp 5→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · At least 15% +29pp 8→37¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The Centre Party, a centrist Swedish political party, currently has a 10% probability of reaching at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election. This represents a modest but non-negligible chance of the party achieving double-digit vote share in the upcoming election. The current probability reflects recent polling data and historical performance patterns. Factors driving this low probability include the party's recent electoral standing and the fragmented nature of the Swedish political landscape, where multiple parties compete for center-right and centrist voters. An upward movement would require significant gains in support or a consolidation of centrist voters around the party. The election outcome will be determined on election day in 2026, when all votes are counted and official results released.

### Key factors

- Recent polling data showing Centre Party averaging 4-8% support, well below the 10% threshold required for this market to resolve affirmatively
- Historical performance indicating Centre Party has struggled to exceed 10% in recent Swedish elections, limiting growth trajectory
- Competition for centrist voters from other moderate parties in Sweden's multi-party system, which could prevent vote consolidation
- Current political climate and coalition dynamics among Swedish parties, which may shift voter preferences before election day
- Margin between current polling estimates and 10% target creates substantial gap requiring significant swing in party support

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/votesweden
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=votesweden
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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