# Will Ruben Gallego be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 11 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vpresnomd
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.503Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | 7¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-buttigieg-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-pr-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-pb |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8¢ | +1pp | $451 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-be-the-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-aoc |
| Raphael Warnock | 3¢ | — | $438 | kalshi | /markets/will-raphael-warnock-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-p-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-rw |
| Jon Ossoff | 5¢ | — | $309 | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-ossoff-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-presid-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-joss |
| Wes Moore | 4¢ | — | $187 | kalshi | /markets/will-wes-moore-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-preside-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-wm |
| Andy Beshear | 5¢ | +1pp | $160 | kalshi | /markets/will-andy-beshear-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-pres-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-ab |
| Elissa Slotkin | 3¢ | +2pp | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-elissa-slotkin-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-pr-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-eslo |
| Gavin Newsom | 5¢ | +1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-newsom-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-pres-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-gn |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 10¢ | +1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-gretchen-whitmer-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-gw |
| Mark Kelly | 4¢ | — | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-kelly-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-presid-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-mkel |
| Josh Shapiro | 5¢ | — | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-shapiro-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-pres-kalshi-kxvpresnomd-28-js |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | 5 |
| 2026-06-21 | 9 |
| 2026-06-26 | 3 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chances that Ruben Gallego, currently a U.S. Senator from Arizona, becomes the Democratic Party's vice presidential nominee. At 5%, markets suggest this is considered unlikely, though not impossible. The low probability reflects that vice presidential selections typically go to candidates with stronger national profiles, broader geographic appeal, or closer ties to the presumptive presidential nominee. The main factors affecting this probability would be the identity of the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and whether geographic balance (Arizona representation) or Gallego's specific qualifications appeal to their campaign strategy. The nomination decision will likely be finalized in mid-to-late summer 2028, shortly before the Democratic National Convention. Key developments would include statements from leading presidential contenders about their VP selection criteria and any shifts in Gallego's national prominence or campaign visibility.

### Key factors

- Gallego's current public profile and media presence compared to other potential Democratic VP candidates as of mid-2026
- Whether the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee values Southwest regional representation or Arizona-specific political assets
- Gallego's track record on major legislative priorities and whether these align with likely presidential nominees' policy agendas
- The emergence or confirmation of alternative VP candidates with higher name recognition or executive experience
- Public endorsements or statements from national Democratic figures regarding Gallego's viability as a running mate

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vpresnomd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vpresnomd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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