# Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 7 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vpresnomr
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.411Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $569

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald J. Trump | 4¢ | — | $213 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-pr-kalshi-kxvpresnomr-28-djt |
| J.D. Vance | 6¢ | +1pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-vance-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-presiden-kalshi-kxvpresnomr-28-jdv |
| Erika Kirk | 3¢ | −1pp | $156 | kalshi | /markets/will-erika-kirk-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-presid-kalshi-kxvpresnomr-28-ekir |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-j-trump-jr-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-kalshi-kxvpresnomr-28-djtjr |
| Marco Rubio | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marco-rubio-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-presi-kalshi-kxvpresnomr-28-mr |
| Glenn Youngkin | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-glenn-youngkin-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-pr-kalshi-kxvpresnomr-28-gy |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sarah-huckabee-sanders-be-the-nominee-for-the-kalshi-kxvpresnomr-28-shs |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 16 |
| 2026-05-25 | 15 |
| 2026-06-01 | 15 |
| 2026-06-07 | 15 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Donald Trump would accept nomination as Vice President on a Republican ticket in 2026. At 8%, the market reflects very low probability, suggesting traders view this as unlikely given Trump's historical positioning and recent political activity. Trump's current focus appears directed toward the presidency or significant political influence, as evidenced by related contracts showing minimal trading on his own presidential nomination (3¢) and heavy activity around Trump Jr.'s presidential prospects (6¢). The main factors affecting this probability are Trump's stated intentions regarding 2026-2028 political involvement and any explicit statements about his willingness to serve in a vice-presidential role. A significant catalyst would be any official announcement from Trump clarifying his political plans or indicating support for a specific presidential candidate as the 2026 cycle progresses. Market movements would likely follow concrete statements rather than speculation, with the probability rising only if Trump explicitly endorsed or positioned himself for a VP nomination.

### Key factors

- Trump's current public statements and announcements regarding his own political role in 2026-2028
- Trading volume and prices on related contracts show Trump Jr. presidential prospects (6¢) vastly outweigh Trump Sr. presidential prospects (3¢), suggesting market belief in different power dynamics
- Historical precedent: Trump has not previously sought vice-presidential office or held subordinate executive positions
- Any official endorsement of a 2026-2028 Republican presidential candidate and Trump's stated relationship to that candidate
- The timing of Republican nominee selection processes and when candidates typically clarify their running-mate choices

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vpresnomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vpresnomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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