# Will exactly 0 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 90% across 1 contract — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vrascotusvote
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.168Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-01

## Headline

- Probability: 90% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $520

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 90¢ | +2pp | $520 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-6-justices-vote-for-the-petitioner-in-kalshi-kxtrumpslaughtervote-26-6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 84 |
| 2026-06-11 | 87 |
| 2026-06-19 | 86 |
| 2026-06-25 | 89 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · 6 +3pp 83→86¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction estimates an 88% chance that no Supreme Court justice will vote in favor of the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais, a case expected to reach the Court's docket. The high probability reflects expectations about how the current Court composition aligns with the case's legal merits and the petitioner's arguments. Resolution depends on the Court's final decision and vote breakdown when the opinion is issued. Key factors include the justices' established voting patterns on similar cases, the specific legal questions presented, whether the Court grants certiorari, and any amicus briefs or oral arguments that might shift consensus. The resolution point occurs when the Court publishes its ruling and vote tallies.

### Key factors

- Current Supreme Court composition and each justice's documented positions on the legal issues at stake
- Whether the Supreme Court grants certiorari; if denied, the prediction resolves with 0 votes for petitioner by default
- The specific framing of legal questions presented and how narrowly or broadly justices interpret the case's scope
- Strength and content of petitioner's merits brief compared to respondent's, including any shifts in legal theory between lower courts and Supreme Court
- The actual vote distribution revealed in the Court's published opinion, which may differ from pre-ruling expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vrascotusvote
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vrascotusvote

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.