# Will Adriana Lima be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 64% across 20 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vsangles
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:51.046Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 64% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quen Blackwell | 51¢ | −2pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-quen-blackwell-be-an-official-runway-model-at-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-que |
| Angel Reese | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angel-reese-be-an-official-runway-model-at-vi-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-ang |
| Adriana Lima | 90¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-adriana-lima-be-an-official-runway-model-at-v-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-adr |
| Alex Consani | 88¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-consani-be-an-official-runway-model-at-v-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-ale |
| Alessandra Ambrosio | 81¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alessandra-ambrosio-be-an-official-runway-mod-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-all |
| Anok Yai | 84¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anok-yai-be-an-official-runway-model-at-victo-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-ano |
| Ashley Graham | 69¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ashley-graham-be-an-official-runway-model-at-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-ash |
| Barbara Palvin | 53¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barbara-palvin-be-an-official-runway-model-at-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-bar |
| Barbie Ferreira | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barbie-ferreira-be-an-official-runway-model-a-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-barb |
| Behati Prinsloo | 70¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-behati-prinsloo-be-an-official-runway-model-a-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-beh |
| Bella Hadid | 81¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bella-hadid-be-an-official-runway-model-at-vi-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-bel |
| Candice Swanepoel | 79¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-candice-swanepoel-be-an-official-runway-model-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-can |
| Daiane Sodre | 76¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daiane-sodre-be-an-official-runway-model-at-v-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-dai |
| Doutzen Kroes | 78¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doutzen-kroes-be-an-official-runway-model-at-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-dou |
| Emily Ratajkowski | 56¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emily-ratajkowski-be-an-official-runway-model-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-emi |
| Gigi Hadid | 77¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gigi-hadid-be-an-official-runway-model-at-vic-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-gig |
| Gisele Bundchen | 26¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gisele-bundchen-be-an-official-runway-model-a-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-gis |
| Heidi Klum | 18¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-heidi-klum-be-at-victorias-secret-fashion-sho-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-hei |
| Imaan Hammam | 72¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-imaan-hammam-be-an-official-runway-model-at-v-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-ima |
| Iris Law | 77¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iris-law-be-an-official-runway-model-at-victo-kalshi-kxvsangles-26dec31-iri |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 55 |
| 2026-06-12 | 87 |
| 2026-06-19 | 64 |
| 2026-06-25 | 66 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Ashley Graham −5pp 75→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Angel Reese +4pp 22→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Alessandra Ambrosio −3pp 83→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Anok Yai −3pp 86→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Barbara Palvin −3pp 56→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment of whether Adriana Lima will walk in the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026. At 63%, the market indicates moderately high confidence she'll participate, though with meaningful uncertainty. Lima's status as a veteran VS Angel and her continued modeling presence support this level, but recent VS casting decisions and the show's timing remain unresolved. The key catalyst is Victoria's Secret's official lineup announcement, expected before the show later in 2026. This will definitively settle the question. The 63% assessment reflects that while Lima remains a recognizable face for the brand, younger and more recently promoted models like Bella Hadid (80%) and Candice Swanepoel (82%) show slightly higher implied probability, suggesting some market uncertainty about whether VS favors legacy talent or emerging faces for this year's show.

### Key factors

- Adriana Lima's recent modeling activity and contract status with Victoria's Secret as of mid-2026
- Comparison to market pricing of other veteran models (Candice Swanepoel at 82%) versus newer talent (Bella Hadid at 80%), indicating relative perceived probability
- Historical precedent: whether Lima participated in recent VS Fashion Shows (2023-2025) or has been in lower-priority campaigns
- The stated or reported size of the 2026 VS Fashion Show lineup and any official comments from VS about casting direction
- Timing of official lineup announcement by Victoria's Secret, which remains the only definitive resolution trigger

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vsangles
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vsangles

## License

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