# VTB United League

> Winner: CSKA Moscow leads at 48%, runner-up 48% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vtb-united-league
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.385Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: CSKA Moscow at 48%
- Runner-up: Winner: Zenit St. Petersburg at 48%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: CSKA Moscow | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vtb-united-league-winner-cska-moscow-polymarket-0x3d6230ef03feb786b0cd086e5fa4d19f8a151b84fe2882d44debf4f78acc2602 |
| Winner: Zenit St. Petersburg | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vtb-united-league-winner-zenit-st-petersburg-polymarket-0xbc3858cac09d4f483dab7ac94f329dfaeeba374b31e732a805ae0ae8b03a9ba9 |
| Winner: Lokomotiv Kuban | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vtb-united-league-winner-lokomotiv-kuban-polymarket-0x58815e26dd4b429cc8fa3abbfc02ac1a678160949fe5e6a3dcb78577625f165e |
| Winner: UNICS Kazan | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vtb-united-league-winner-unics-kazan-polymarket-0x72d2281eff506ff78feeeb97eef0ebb40457ea91d031ffcd50a91517943ec60f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: CSKA Moscow | Winner: Zenit St. Petersburg | Winner: Lokomotiv Kuban |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 50 | 50 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 50 | 50 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 47 | 47 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 | 48 | 32 |
| 2026-05-09 | 48 | 48 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Winner: Lokomotiv Kuban −6pp 37→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: UNICS Kazan +6pp 33→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: UNICS Kazan −4pp 36→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Lokomotiv Kuban +3pp 32→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Lokomotiv Kuban +3pp 35→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market represents the implied probability that Uralmash Yekaterinburg wins the VTB United League championship. At 50%, Uralmash is marginally favored over the runner-up at 49%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the league outcome. The tight pricing suggests the contenders have roughly comparable strength or remaining schedule difficulty. Key factors driving this level include current standings, remaining fixtures, head-to-head records, and injury status of key players. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the conclusion of the regular season and any playoff structure determining the champion. Volume is minimal ($0 on the Parma contract), indicating limited recent trading interest and potentially wider bid-ask spreads that could allow large moves if new information emerges. The market reflects a genuinely competitive league where multiple teams remain viable contenders through the final matches.

### Key factors

- Current standing and points differential between Uralmash and nearest competitors in VTB United League
- Remaining fixtures for Uralmash versus Parma and other contenders, including strength-of-schedule analysis
- Historical head-to-head performance and goal differential in direct matchups between top contenders
- Injury or suspension status of key players for Uralmash and competing teams
- Trading volume and bid-ask spread on this contract relative to other league winner markets, suggesting information flow

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vtb-united-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vtb-united-league

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.