# Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.9 million gallons

> Above 2.8 million gallons leads at 83%, runner-up 73% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vtmaple
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.782Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2.8 million gallons at 83%
- Runner-up: Above 2.9 million gallons at 73%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.8 million gallons | 83¢ | −5pp | $701 | kalshi | /markets/will-vermonts-maple-syrup-production-for-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxvtmaple-27jun30-t2.8 |
| Above 2.9 million gallons | 73¢ | −10pp | $925 | kalshi | /markets/will-vermonts-maple-syrup-production-for-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxvtmaple-27jun30-t2.9 |
| Above 3.0 million gallons | 56¢ | −9pp | $899 | kalshi | /markets/will-vermonts-maple-syrup-production-for-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxvtmaple-27jun30-t3.0 |
| Above 3.1 million gallons | 43¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-vermonts-maple-syrup-production-for-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxvtmaple-27jun30-t3.1 |
| Above 3.2 million gallons | 26¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-vermonts-maple-syrup-production-for-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxvtmaple-27jun30-t3.2 |
| Above 2.7 million gallons | 16¢ | −4pp | $451 | kalshi | /markets/will-vermonts-maple-syrup-production-for-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxvtmaple-27jun30-t2.7 |
| Above 3.3 million gallons | 10¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-vermonts-maple-syrup-production-for-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxvtmaple-27jun30-t3.3 |
| Above 3.4 million gallons | 3¢ | — | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-vermonts-maple-syrup-production-for-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxvtmaple-27jun30-t3.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2.8 million gallons | Above 2.9 million gallons | Above 3.0 million gallons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | — | 83 | 68 |
| 2026-08-21 | 84 | — | 55 |
| 2026-08-22 | 87 | 78 | 62 |
| 2026-08-24 | 82 | 71 | 55 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Above 3.1 million gallons −31pp 48→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 3.1 million gallons +26pp 17→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 2.9 million gallons −10pp 81→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 3.0 million gallons −9pp 68→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 3.0 million gallons −9pp 64→55¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 81% probability reflects market expectation that Vermont will produce more than 2.9 million gallons of maple syrup in 2027. This threshold sits above Vermont's recent production levels, which have historically ranged between 2.0 and 2.9 million gallons annually. Weather conditions during the 2027 sugaring season—particularly spring temperatures and freeze-thaw cycles critical for sap flow—represent the primary driver of production outcomes. Tree health and tapping rates across Vermont's commercial operations also influence yield potential. The resolution depends on official production data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, typically released in late summer or early fall 2027 following the March-April sugaring season. Market pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty remains, with only 43% probability assigned to exceeding 3.1 million gallons, indicating skepticism about reaching record-high production levels.

### Key factors

- Vermont's actual maple syrup production over the past decade has ranged from approximately 2.0-2.9 million gallons, making 2.9M a near-historical ceiling
- Spring 2027 weather patterns—particularly the frequency and intensity of freeze-thaw cycles in March-April—directly determine sap flow rates and syrup yield
- Commercial tapping intensity and the number of active producer operations in Vermont for 2027 season affects aggregate output capacity
- The USDA NASS will release official Vermont maple syrup production figures in late summer/early fall 2027, providing definitive resolution
- Steeply declining probabilities at higher thresholds (66% for 2.9M to 6% for 3.3M) indicate the market views production substantially above 3.0M gallons as unlikely

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vtmaple
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vtmaple

## License

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