# Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,900 units

> Above 1,600 units leads at 92%, runner-up 79% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vtpermits
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:45.692Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-03

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1,600 units at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 1,700 units at 79%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1,600 units | 92¢ | +15pp | $660 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t1600 |
| Above 1,700 units | 79¢ | +25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t1700 |
| Above 1,800 units | 73¢ | +21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t1800 |
| Above 1,900 units | 65¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t1900 |
| Above 2,000 units | 55¢ | +1pp | $580 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t2000 |
| Above 2,100 units | 48¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t2100 |
| Above 2,200 units | 37¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t2200 |
| Above 2,300 units | 28¢ | +11pp | $788 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t2300 |
| Above 2,400 units | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t2400 |
| Above 2,500 units | 10¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t2500 |
| Above 2,600 units | 7¢ | +4pp | $636 | kalshi | /markets/will-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-by-b-kalshi-kxvtpermits-27may03-t2600 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1,600 units | Above 1,700 units | Above 1,800 units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 34 | 42 | 24 |
| 2026-08-23 | 45 | 47 | 45 |
| 2026-08-24 | 77 | 72 | 66 |
| 2026-08-25 | 92 | — | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-24 · Above 1,600 units +32pp 45→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 1,700 units +25pp 47→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 2,100 units +21pp 14→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 1,800 units +21pp 24→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 1,800 units +21pp 45→66¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 30% chance that Vermont will authorize over 1,900 privately owned housing units via building permits during 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether new construction will accelerate beyond recent historical levels in the state. Housing permit volumes depend primarily on developer confidence, which is shaped by financing availability, labor costs, and local zoning decisions. The second half of 2026 will provide most data to resolve this question, with the final permit count released early 2027 by the Census Bureau. Current market pricing suggests traders view above-1,900 units as a less likely outcome compared to the 1,600–1,800 unit range.

### Key factors

- Vermont's historical permit authorizations averaged 1,200–1,500 units annually from 2015–2023, making the 1,900+ threshold a roughly 25–30% above-trend outcome
- Financing conditions and mortgage rates in H2 2026 will influence whether developers submit new projects; rising rates typically reduce permits while declining rates encourage submissions
- The Census Bureau's formal release of 2026 permit data occurs in early 2027 and will definitively settle the contract based on building permits issued, not completed units
- Vermont's regional housing demand and state/local zoning policy changes between now and year-end 2026 directly determine developer feasibility and submission likelihood
- Market liquidity is concentrated in the 2,000+ unit and 1,600+ unit thresholds, with minimal trading in the 1,800–1,900 band, suggesting less certainty about that specific range

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vtpermits
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vtpermits

## License

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