# V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vvaren-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-vvaren
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 71%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 51%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $894

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 71¢ | +13pp | $248 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x07a43571c8c72f5d007d7289f8df4242d39670b84a1a7a573ded0f340625b319 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +6pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x72e6ac4ae0c7f7f7f27d9cc4852345a4cd3ebfed1beed0c4069b343da355411d |
| O/U 2.5 | 43¢ | — | $497 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x716f7759f189926a037690bcd9e84cd003b779c66706262aebe0cdd7bd32c36d |
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | −4pp | $96 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x39f38467e79479039a76669f40c9b492b970f73ab332ba1e7106facd5b703efc |
| Fagiano Okayama (-1.5) | 14¢ | −25pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x1b0ea45be3a63fcf68d481151d5534fdb085c83681909da802751bbb4ce0e439 |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) | 14¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-v-polymarket-0xa74e6079ee29906a5e317f14da648768eca1570ba620d2426cb68392a228fec0 |
| O/U 4.5 | 9¢ | −16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x2871c097f22fc551b5aad11d4f65a65bfe943e32a95e3503b19d3fabd76ac97c |
| Fagiano Okayama (-2.5) | 5¢ | −23pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-f-polymarket-0xf65661563cdb776db46549f455dc77ef0c1cc89a0b39b126c4d7f3dfedc81cc3 |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5) | 5¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-v-polymarket-0x93980066a52457352e6e9e617e27606df45e4f2c57cd51c3cc87b772315662bf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 63 | — | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 61 | 51 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 74 | 57 | 60 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Fagiano Okayama (-1.5) −25pp 36→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Fagiano Okayama (-2.5) −23pp 32→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −16pp 34→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5) −14pp 34→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 1.5 +13pp 61→74¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 32% probability that V-Varen Nagasaki will defeat Fagiano Okayama by 3 or more goals in an upcoming match. The low probability suggests Fagiano Okayama is favored or the spread is considered unlikely. Two main drivers shape this level: the relative strength and recent form of both teams in Japan's football league structure, and historical head-to-head performance if applicable. The resolution depends on the match outcome on the scheduled date—likely within days given the market's active status. Key uncertainty stems from team lineups, injuries to key players, and whether either side enters the fixture under tactical or motivational disadvantages. The tight clustering between the leading probability (32%) and runner-up suggests meaningful disagreement among traders about whether the -2.5 spread undervalues or overvalues Nagasaki's winning chances.

### Key factors

- V-Varen Nagasaki's current league position, goal differential, and recent match results compared to Fagiano Okayama's defensive record
- Availability of key attacking players for Nagasaki and defensive depth for Okayama at the time of the scheduled fixture
- Historical scoring patterns in head-to-head matchups: whether these teams typically produce high-scoring or tight results
- Fagiano Okayama's goals-against average this season relative to Nagasaki's goals-for average, directly influencing likelihood of a 3+ goal margin
- Market depth and movement direction: whether the 32% price has shifted upward or downward in recent trading activity, signaling emerging information

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vvaren-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-vvaren
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vvaren-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-vvaren

## License

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